Look! No ash!

No evidence of volcanic ash has been found in any BA aircraft engines since European skies were reopened on 20 April, following a six-day closure after the eruption of an Icelandic volcano.

From that period to date, we are told that BA has operated more than 20,000 flight segments and conducted more than 8,000 engine inspections. Engines and their filters had been inspected by BA engineers and sent to laboratories for closer analysis. Yet, says chief executive Willie Walsh, "Not only have we not found any damage from ash, we have not found any ash."

But for the intervention of Willie Walsh and other airline leaders, it is unlikely that the flight ban would have been lifted on 20 April. Still, the authorities would have been relying on a Met Office computer model to predict the location of the ash and set the safety criteria.

Observation by a research aircraft on 20 April, however, revealed that ash levels were "barely detectable", a finding repeated last week when again the Met Office warned of "dense ash clouds" over Ireland and northern England, then spreading southwards. When the research aircraft flew through the region, on its return from detachment in Nantes, it was unable to find ash in the predicted areas.

While BA's findings provide still further evidence of the failings of the ash model, the Met Office is still insisting – as it does with its global warming data – that its model is "accurate".

The Civil Aviation Authority has responded by increasing the tolerance limits for flying in ash clouds, but is still relying on Met Office data. Walsh thinks this is "a bit of a fudge." He want the airlines to be able to decide on whether to take the risk, and takes the view that: "We cannot have a situation where the Met Office decides if the skies are open or closed."

Yet, that has effectively been the case, with the safety authorities taking their cue entirely from the Met Office, a process that has undoubtedly led to huge over-reaction and massive cost and disruption. No one in authority though seems to want to take the lesson from this, or draw the wider inferences. But the issue is not going to go away ... Katla is rumbling.

ICELAND'S REVENGE THREAD

You didn't see it here

There are some things in life you never thought you would see. This is one of them (look at the name of the author).

COMMENT THREAD

Vanity money

One of the more egregious stupidities, from a man given to more than average, is David Cameron's decision to ring-fence the foreign aid programme.

Better late than never, we now have Andrew Gilligan in The Daily Telegraph questioning that decision, in a piece headed: "Did Britian (sic) really need to give millions to the wealthy state of Singapore?"

Apparently, "Britain" (i.e., British taxpayers) has given £8.7 million in development aid to Singapore, whose gross domestic product per capita is the fourth highest in the world, and 46 percent higher than our own. And, of course, we have dolled out well over £1 billion in aid to India over the last three years, for that country to finance its space programme, its defence re-equipment and its own aid programme.

Even where aid is directed to an ostensibly good cause, such as Afghanistan, we see some insane spending decisions, such as the spending of £420,000 on a leisure park for women in Afghanistan, complete with a Ferris wheel.

If ever there was a budget that needed to be ripped apart, shredded, eviscerated and then collapsed, it is our aid budget ... and DFID with it. But that is not Cameron territory. This is the PR spiv who lives by the "feel good" gesture, and for that vanity we are to pay £9 billion from our hard earned incomes.

And the reason we should not rise up and slaughter him is?

COMMENT THREAD

A whole mess of uncertainty and fear

Yesterday was a big day politically, with the Cleggerons delivering the latest version of their coalition pact - and the wrong day to go offline for most of the day, with an internet upgrade, especially as I returned to read of Cameron's stitch-up of the '22 Committee. This was recounted by Autonomous Mind, who was not the only one to be distinctly unimpressed.

But what comes over from both episodes is the low-grade pettiness of it all – the modern equivalent of fiddling while Rome burns. The modern conflagration, in the shape of the euro crisis, is summed up by a trader recorded in The Guardian telling us that "the markets are a whole mess of uncertainty and fear right now".

The speaker is Joshua Raymond, market strategist at City Index, who then observes that, as the FTSE nosedived, "it is hardly surprising that investors are fleeing risky assets everywhere." This, he says, "necessarily, means heavy weakness for stocks, sterling and the euro."

It is times like these that one feels one's own lack of knowledge and expertise, although it is also clear that the experts are floundering as well. At least, though, the Wall Street Journal makes the crisis its lead story, with the legend: "The Euro Turns Radioactive".

The Times in London also leads with the story and from this source we learn that Merkel is leading calls for an international financial tax today, which she claims to be a "signal of strength" – preparatory to the meeting of finance ministers in Brussels tomorrow.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is calling it a "perfect storm", noting that market tremors are hitting China, Europe and the US. Just about every indicator you care to look at tells its own unhappy story, with no end in sight and no prospect of good news any time soon.

I asked Ambrose earlier how serious the situation was. Were we talking about unemployment and soup queues, or was it not quite that bad? The response was a cryptic two words: "that bad" – which sort of says it all. No one I can find is prepared to say any different - Randall is even more downbeat.

Yet, with economic collapse threatening, with potentially catastrophic consequences, David Cameron is obsessed with his own petty affairs. Yesterday he was telling his backbenchers to "get used to the new world" as he and Nick Clegg unveiled their full coalition deal.

There's a "new world" coming alright and it's not the one he has in mind. But it's certainly one he is going to have to get used to. At the moment, he seems on a different planet – and now is not the time to have the children running the shop.

GREEK THREAD

What are they hiding?

I don't know if "meltdown" is the right term to use in describing the current plight of the euro, but from this perspective, that is very much what it looks like.

But what is most intriguing are Ambrose's comments about undisclosed debt in the German banking system, and his suggestion that the underlying damage to the eurozone banking system runs even deeper than feared.

One thing is absolutely for sure – we the [ordinary] people are not being told the half of it. But when, quite obviously, the finance ministers of the eurozone are holding emergency meetings, in a state of near if not actual panic – as they are doing today – then it is time to batten down the hatches.

The real question – or one of them – is whether the recent unilateral action by Germany in banning short selling is a sign that it is about to pull the plug on the whole euro experiment, with a growing sense that Germany is acting solely in its own interests, and has abandoned any communautaire spirit.

What is also lacking is any clarity from the UK specialist media on the implications for the British economy, and thus our general wellbeing. The effects of currency disturbances are always important, but the effect of a currency collapse – if that is what is happening – will undoubtedly be profound. Yet, in nuts and bolts terms, as to what could happen here, the commentators are remarkably silent.

One wonders whether the implications are so awful that no one really wants to address them. That would be a pity ... whatever else, we are seeing a small bit of history being made.

GREEK THREAD

Currency change

Mother nature hasn't got the message that Spring is half-gone already. It's currently snowing in the Alps, up on the glaciers at least, eight of which remain open for snow sports in three countries.

In Northern Europe more areas are opening for summer skiing in Norway, while ski areas in Finland and Scotland remain open. In Sweden they're skiing and boarding under the midnight sun now 24 hour daylight has returned. Half a dozen ski areas remain open in North America too since last Autumn.

It is also cold on Austria's glaciers, four of which are currently open for snow sports, following the closure of the Molltal glacier ski area for the season last weekend. Temperatures have been dropping as low as -10 (and a max of -5) with fresh snow forecast on the Kaunertal glacier, which has a 90-140cm (3-5 foot) base and all lifts and slopes open.

There are similar conditions on the Kitzsteinhorn glacier above Kaprun where nine lifts are serving the glacier ski slopes and the accumulated base is 193cm (6.5 feet). It's -10C for the Stubai glacier near Innsbruck too, which reports 5cm (2 inches) of new snow and a 180cm (six foot) base. However the Tux glacier probably has the biggest ski area open in the Alps at present with 43.5km of runs, 13 lifts running, a 295cm (10 foot) base and an 1150m skiable vertical.

And in Rwanda's Volcanoes National Park, three baby mountain gorillas and an adult female have died, possibly from a combination of extremely cold and rainy weather. WWF workers are said to be distraught.

Delingpole, meanwhile, on his blog says that only morons, cheats and liars still believe in man-made global warming. That, presumably, is why the Cleggerons are so keen on the idea.

The scientists on our side of the argument have won, says Dellers. The problem is, he says, is that this debate was never really about science anyway. AGW is and always have been a political process. It's the political war that we're fighting now and it’s going to be much, much harder to win. He's right there ... and there are other battles to fight.

The interesting bet now is which is going to collapse first – the global warming religion or the euro. Perhaps they could collapse simultaneously – we could call it "currency change".

CLIMATE CHANGE NEW THREAD

And when my lips move ...

David Cameron revealed yesterday that he is ready to tear up the Human Rights Act amid growing public concern that it is being exploited by foreign criminals.

So proclaimed The Daily Telegraph, telling us that, if he wins the next general election, the Conservative leader will order a review of the law introduced by Labour eight years ago and rewrite the legislation if necessary. The piece continues:

However, if it becomes clear that it was not possible to improve the Act through amendments, Mr Cameron is prepared to abolish it. The Tory leader's aides conceded last night that even if the party scrapped the Act, Britain would still be bound by the European Convention of Human Rights.

As a result, it would still be possible for people to take their cases to the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg as a last resort.

A spokesman for Mr Cameron said: "We believe that rewriting or repealing the Human Rights Act would solve most of the problems but if we found there was still a problem with the European Convention, then we would have to look at that.

"David has made clear that if it proves necessary in the long run, he is willing to temporarily withdraw Britain from the Convention so we can negotiate appropriate derogations."

This piece, as you might have guessed, was published a little time ago – on 13 May 2006, almost four years ago to the day. But then, it is only a promise and, like The Boy's referendum promise, isn't worth the paper is isn't printed on.

But why are politicians like Cameron so surprised when we regard them as a bunch of lying shits, and tell them so?

RESHUFFLE THREAD

Lying cheating bastards

With The Daily Mail breaking the news that the Tories are now "watering down" their manifesto pledge on the Human Rights Act, Gerald Warner takes us to task for believing what they say in the first place.

People "... take the superficial meaning of their words at face value, without pausing to consider what they really mean," says Warner, his tongue so firmly in his cheek that he must be hideously deformed. Nevertheless, a reader takes him up on his admonition, offering an example of how we have so cruelly misunderstood our noble public servants.

He tells us that the Tory promise that: "Since we can't have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, we'll seek a repatriation of powers from the EU, and pass a sovereignty bill, " actually means, "We're not going to seek to repatriate any powers from the EU at all, and while we'll think about a sovereignty bill, we may not bother with that either."

One can certainly see that the texts are so similar in content and meaning that it would be very easy to become confused, as indeed did Warner's reader, who confesses: "Yup, I was well suckered. I voted for Cameron under the impression that his government might actually honour its manifesto commitments for more than a week." He concludes: "How naïve I am!"

Someone who was not confused was Autonomous Mind, who notes:

We have been spun a tale of a new politics being created, one that serves the people rather than the political class. The reality is we are seeing the political class perpetrate a fraud against the public, using the challenges of working in coalition as an excuse for following an agenda that abandons pledges offered to appease the public, while tightening the politicians' grip on the levers of power.

I think he is being far too level-headed. We are seeing the lying, cheating, bastards ... lying and cheating. And Mr Warner's reader? Naïve? That is not the word I would have used.

RESHUFFLE THREAD

The euro is in danger

Says Merkel: "This challenge is existential. And we have to rise to it. The euro is in danger. If we don't deal with this danger, then the consequences for us in Europe are incalculable."

German chancellors, in my experience, do not normally use strident language, yet this is positively apocalyptic. The Germans have a problem ... and so do we. The trouble is, I don't think we (as in the UK) are taking it seriously enough yet.

GREEK THREAD

Deranged

The kerfuffle yesterday about the refusal to deport Abid Naseer, the alleged ring-leader of an "imminent" al-Qaeda backed plot, might prove to be a turning point in what is going to be the short life of this dire Cleggeron coalition. If it is not, it should be.

The importance of the issue transcends the immediate fate of Naseer. On the line was the Conservative manifesto commitment to ditch the Human Rights Act and replace it with a UK Bill of Rights. In responding to the tribunal's ruling, Teresa May had the ideal opportunity to reaffirm that commitment – but she blew it, expressing only "disappointment".

From the BBC we now learn that the Cleggerons are to set up a "commission" to review the Act but there is absolutely no expectation of any significant change. The Lib-Dims are opposed as a matter of principle to any dilution and for the Tories to honour their commitment would split the coalition asunder.

Thus, effectively, at the very first hurdle, the Tories have reneged on a crucial manifesto commitment – and this will not be the only time they will do so. And someone who sees this with absolute clarity is Mary Ellen Synon in her Daily Mail blog. With a directness that puts this blog to shame, she writes:

The most revolting thing about the way Cameron and Hague have sold out the British to the European Union isn't that they've done it; though that is revolting enough. No, the thing which is really sick-making is the eagerness, the enthusiasm with which they've done it. What has been revolting is the speed with which they have grabbed any excuse to dump every Conservative policy of resistance to ever-greater control of Britain by the EU institutions.

Through the months leading up to the election (or reshuffle, as we would prefer to call it), we have insisted that Cameron is not – as has been claimed for him – a eurosceptic. And neither, we have averred, is William Hague.

Now we have Mary Ellen Synon stating unequivocally that, "It has become clear that every word of scepticism ever uttered by Cameron and Hague about the dangers posed to Britain by the EU was fake." Writes Synon: " They never meant any of it. The coalition negotiations with the loser-Lib-Dems didn't force them to surrender any of these policies - it is clear now the Tory leadership couldn't hand them over fast enough."

All of this was so very predictable and, now that we are here, the politicians simply cannot resist the temptation to rub our noses in it. Front page of The Daily Telegraph this morning is a headline, "Tell us the laws you want scrapped", trailing a speech to be given by Nick Clegg today.

In his first speech as deputy prime minister, Clegg will apparently promise "the biggest shake-up of British democracy since 1832", "setting out how the state will shrink from people's lives".

Yet, for all the hyperbole, the tens of thousands of EU laws are totally off limits. Even the Tories' modest plans to repatriate employment and social laws have been abandoned. The great law-making machinery goes on unabated, spewing out its directives and regulations, all the while siphoning up our money. Thus, selling us the idea of the state shrinking when our supreme government is in Brussels and makes the bulk of our laws is a cynical fraud.

It is thus quite difficult to choose between two options to explain what is going on here. If, on the one hand, Clegg believes his own propaganda, he must be so incredibly thick that it is difficult to believe he can knot his tie unaided. On the other hand, if he expects us to believe it, he must surely rank our intellects on a par with slugs.

Looking at the man, his speech and his behaviour, he does not come over as irredeemably stupid. And if he does not believe us to be stupid, he is certainly treating us as if we were. That, as some of his best friends might tell him, is not the best way of getting people on side.

In fact, with this agenda, all Clegg can do is waste a lot of time and a lot of our money. His lasting achievement will be only to magnify the contempt we already have for him and his class. And if he thinks the outcome is going to be any different, he is deranged. He is completely off his trolley, barking, flipped ... or whatever description you care to use.

RESHUFFLE THREAD

Don't laugh

That's your government ... or part of it.

RESHUFFLE THREAD

Ghosts at the feast

The House of Commons met briefly this afternoon to elect a new speaker – the dreadful Bercow again taking the chair. With the Cleggerons cuddled up on the bench opposite, the Harriet Harperson (pictured) took the opportunity to tell us how "very pleased" MPs were that the British National Party failed to win a single Commons seat at the general election.

To roars of approval, she said: "We all have our differences in this House but all of us are united in being very, very, pleased and relieved that there is nowhere on these green benches a member of the British National Party."

Sadly, it seems Harperson has returned to the House after her re-election without having learned a thing. For sure, the BNP did not gain any MPs but its influence was present today in the very structure of the House, having changed its makeup through the UKIP effect.

No mention was made of UKIP but the very fact that the Cleggerons are on the coalition benches is adequate testament to their influence. UKIP and the BNP have actually dictated the shape of this parliament. They, not the tired, discredited majority parties – none of which could manage to form a government on their own – are driving events.

RESHUFFLE THREAD

Neither use nor ornament

Let's see now ... the leader of a terrorist cell planning an attack on Easter shoppers in Manchester cannot be deported back to Pakistan in case he is tortured – according to the Special Immigration Appeals Commission.

So to Teresa May, the Cleggeron Home Secretary. She says: "We are disappointed". That's it? She's disappointed? That's all we get?

And the reason we maintain Teresa May at public expense is?

COMMENT THREAD

A basic survival plan

This was the scene (above) recorded at Heathrow yesterday by Reuters' photographer Adnan Hajj, shortly after it was announced that ash tolerances were to be relaxed once again.

Well, the bit about the ash tolerances is real – and I can't help but think that this is the wrong way to go. The better way surely has to be better to define the affected areas, using real observational data rather than relying on the Met Office model. There is just a whiff here of convenience here.

Neither is this an academic issue, as things could be about to get a whole lot worse. The Icelandic Met office has indicated that a small earthquake has occurred at the Katla location and, although a single earthquake is not a precursor of an eminent eruption, it could be the first "sigh" of the awakening powerful giant.

Historically – as most readers will now know - Katla invariably erupts after the eruption of its close neighbour on the Eyjafjallajokull, which first erupted on 14 April 2010 and is ongoing. Magma channels beneath the two volcanoes are thought to be interconnected.

A Katla eruption would likely be about ten times as powerful as the Eyjafjallajokull eruption and could cause worldwide disruption while expelling huge volumes of volcanic ash into the stratosphere. This could circle the globe potentially for years, depending upon the magnitude of the eruption, causing climatic upset and serious economic loss.

We could even be looking at another year without a summer (certainly within the next two years), which could make our current economic problems relatively insignificant by comparison.

The only consolation – and it will be a poor one at that – is that such an event would drive into oblivion the ranks of the warmists who, even to this day are still pursuing their creed, tedious and entirely unconvincing though it is. The downside is that, having been looking for so long in the wrong direction, many politicians and even whole nations will be ill-equipped for a period of significant cooling.

Given the possibility also of a collapse in the euro – which at one time was thought fanciful and is now thought increasingly likely by serious commentators – one need not be alarmist to reflect the sentiment of this blog and ask whether have you started your food storage plan.

Basic survival preparedness is a personal responsibility that was simply a way of life for our ancestors, it says. Let's not forget how.

COMMENT THREAD

Spelling it out

Uwe Parpart, chief Asia strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald, warned that on its present trajectory the euro will "lurch toward parity with the US dollar and through it before year-end, then disintegrate." He adds: "EU politicos are unwilling and unable to face the urgent need for across-the-board fiscal consolidation. The market sees that and reacts."

GREEK THREAD

If anyone wants to know ...

... why an increasing number of white folk in this district are voting for the BNP, all they need to do is look at today's headline in the local paper. White, English speaking parents are being forced to send their kids to schools where they are the minority, and English is a second language.

It is not racist to want to send your kids to school, where they can be taught the same language as their parents, where they can learn the same values and the same religion. It is not racist to want some of the kids to be the same colour as your own kids, to have something in common with them and to have the same background.

But in many parts of multicultural Bradford – as elsewhere – Mr & Mrs Whitey are strangers in their own land, their children second-class citizens, and their language a foreign tongue. Yet, when Mr Council Official wants to cut down his rate of Council Tax arrears, he does not come a calling in the areas where English is never heard. He comes calling on Mr & Mrs Whitey.

And when Mr & Mrs Whitey want something from the Council, well ... forget it. Mr Nice Council Official doesn't do service in white areas. But, before very much longer, Mr & Mrs Whitey aren't going to be so nice and patient. We have had enough.

I just thought you would like to know that.

COMMENT THREAD

Trouble in the wind

Away from the likes of Chris Huhne and his mad vision of a land covered with wind turbines, the real world is beginning to intrude.

According to the independent business intelligence service Wind Energy Update, wind turbine operation and maintenance (O&M) costs are increasing sharply, rising to two or three times more than first projected and causing a 21 percent decrease in returns on investments.

O&M costs were found to be especially high in the United States, now the world's largest wind power market, but the even the average world costs are coming out at 27 US cents per kilowatt hour, compared with the 20 cents earned in the US through production credits.

The report says that while close to 80 percent of the world's wind turbines are still under warranty, "this is about to change." R&D is focusing especially on gearbox reliability. Many gearboxes, designed for a 20-year life, are failing after six to eight years of operation, the report finds.

The bizarre thing is that, while Huhne is so insistent that nuclear should not be given any subsidy, even with the massive subsidy it already gets, wind cannot be made to pay. And yet, in the economics of the madhouse which characterises British energy policy, it is wind which is set to inherit the earth.

There must be a special kind of madness that inflicts politicians – clearly, their brains are not wired the same as in normal human beings.

COMMENT THREAD

To panic, or not to panic ...

After nervous trading in Tokyo this morning sent the euro into an early nosedive, Naomi Fink, a Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi currency strategist, said that the euro's fall was better explained as a natural correction. "I'm not joining the big panic on this," she said. "The euro was overvalued for quite a time and now it is a bit more sensibly valued. This was bound to happen and overdue."

Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut, took a slightly different view. "The euro is doomed," he says. "The strains among the partners are becoming clear and it's becoming harder to see global growth not being threatened by this."

With that, the euro has fallen further, trading 0.3 percent lower on the day at $1.2320, although up from $1.2237 — its lowest since April 2006. It has now fallen nearly 10 cents in the space of a week and, says Stuart Bennett, currency analyst at Credit Agricole CIB, "Panic is now showing up in the euro currency because it can't be really expressed in the bond markets after the EU/IMF package."

But ECB policymaker Ewald Nowotny said the fall in the currency was not a cause for concern, adding the exchange rate was in a "normal range" and there was no reason for hysteria about it.

So there you are ... pays your money and you makes your choice.

GREEK THREAD

Unfinished business

Once again, volcano ash from our hyperactive neighbour in Iceland is causing havoc with commercial aviation in the UK (and elsewhere). Manchester, Liverpool, East Midlands and Doncaster airports were among those that were closed from 13:00 BST Sunday, with Birmingham and Norwich closing down at 19:00 Hrs.

And once again, we are hearing complaints from airlines that the safety authorities are over-reacting. Richard Branson, for Virgin Atlantic, has described the closure of Manchester airport as "beyond a joke" and a British Airways spokesman has said the bans were "not justified on safety grounds". He has called for airlines, not authorities, to be responsible for the decision.

The problem, it would seem is that, while the tolerance levels for airborne volcanic ash have been eased, there has been no fundamental change in the monitoring methodology, which still relies on the NAME atmospheric dispersion model operated by the Met Office.

British Airways said the airspace authorities were being "overly restrictive" and the airline had "no confidence" in the model being used as a basis for deciding on airspace closures. "It is clear," says the airline, that "there is too much reliance on the theoretical model of ash spread produced by a single body - the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre."

The airline wants greater observation of the ash cloud using satellite imagery, ground radar and airborne tests. It already buys in data from the US forecaster, WSI, which it says makes greater use of satellites to pinpoint the location of the ash.

The airline may have a good point, as the model has its limitations and needs verification. However, the Met Office, while openly admitting the limitations on its website, it is being less than candid in is current public statements. It claims that its model is "well proven" and provides results "consistent" with other models, such as those in France and Canada.

Although the Met Office goes on to claim that its model "works well" and is "sophisticated", that really is not the point. There are major uncertainties in the basic modelling, which are magnified over time and distance, making direct verification absolutely essential.

Of the various options available, satellite monitoring is extremely valuable for tracking dense ash plumes, but is of limited value when the cloud is no longer visible, even though it might still be harmful. Ground-based sensors are also of some value, although they have limited range and generally cannot pick up anything above 10,000 feet. National coverage is also patchy and incomplete.

Thus, for accurate, real-time monitoring on a large scale, there is actually no substitute for monitoring aircraft. Yet it is here that we have a crucial capacity shortfall. We are still effectively reliant on the one FAAM BAe 146, which is the only suitable aircraft in the UK currently equipped for such work.

Yet, the authorities are showing considerable reluctant to rely on such monitoring – which invites the suspicion that this is for no good reason other than the fact that assets are limited. Instead, Met Office scientists have been tasked to use the aircraft for the secondary role of updating the model, thus flying an extremely restricted range of sorties – the aircraft currently being despatched to France.

Given the very obvious discrepancy between what should be happening (a high volume of direct observation flights) and what is actually happening (continued reliance on modelling), the indications are that, as before, the Department for Transport (which is responsible for monitoring airspace) has been caught out with insufficient assets to do its job.

This is something which politicians in the recently departed administration were obviously reluctant to admit, but it is also that which the media is not currently reporting. Nor are the airlines particularly helping themselves, their complaints lacking clarity and focus.

Resolving this problem in the long term needs the establishment of a new monitoring service, properly equipped with enough suitable aircraft to keep an eye on the whole of UK airspace. Providing them would be an ideal test for new transport secretary Philip Hammond, although it is unlikely that he will do any better than his Labour predecessor. Through the earlier volcano ash crisis, the Tories showed no technical appreciation of the issues – or even any capability to understand them. And even if they did, they will doubtless be just as reluctant to spend the money on the necessary monitoring aircraft.

It would not be overly pessimistic to thus aver that the current unfinished business will remain unfinished, and – from the point of view of governance – that we are in for a period of more of the same.

ICELAND'S REVENGE THREAD

Germany falling

There is probably nothing more parochial and small-minded than a British politician, unless you also count in the national press, which reports foreign affairs with reluctance and most often very badly.

The poverty of reporting has certainly been very evident with the ongoing euro crisis, the Greek bailout and the growing political turmoil in Germany as voters increasingly realise that they have been stitched up by their political classes.

To some slight extent that is remedied this Sunday, with articles such as this in The Sunday Telegraph, although they are pretty light-weight and, more to the point, focused on the problem as if it was a German affair.

What our lame commentators do not seem to be able to cope with is that, even though the UK is not a member of the eurozone, it is very much part of the European Union – and anything that affects the euro is going to have a serious effect on all member states.

Here, what has not been properly taken on board is that which even Merkel is now admitting - that the trillion-dollar stabilisation package that the "colleagues" cobbled together last week merely "buys time". It solves nothing in the medium to long-term and, in fact, its beneficial effect may not last even weeks. Serious commentators are now quite openly talking about the collapse of the euro.

And this is what is more than a little surreal about the whole issue. The prospect of the euro collapsing is serious. Despite our willing it to happen, the impact on currency markets and the EU member state economies would be catastrophic – and prolonged. We could quite easily see Europe dragged into a depression, the like of which made the 1920s look like a rehearsal.

Yet nothing of this seriousness, of the danger, seems to pervade the British media. Even The Sunday Times writes of it in "tee hee" terms, as if it were a German problem, reporting in loving detail the difficulties that Merkel is encountering. There is no hint of the devastating effects that a collapse might have on the UK.

Similarly, we have The Independent writing of the "winds of change" when it should be warning of an approaching hurricane, while The Guardian talks glibly about the need for "financial reform".

But, if the newspapers are bad, the politicians are far worse. Given the potential effects and the seriousness of this crisis, one would expect The Boy to have set up an emergency committee, to be shadowing events and working out our response – warning people of the rocks ahead.

One suspects, though, that the Cleggerons are so absorbed in their own affairs that the idea of an off-shore crisis hasn't registered with them. These oh-so-clever people will probably be the last to realise the peril.

GREEK THREAD

A fuss about nothing

Tory Boy blog is showing its usual excellent grasp of things EU, by speculating on the consequences of the Lisbon Treaty having to be re-ratified.

There is only a minor problem: the Treaty isn't going to be re-ratified. The "colleagues" are planning a new protocol (which is a sort of mini-treaty) to change the number of MEPs allowed, but that requires only the protocol to be ratified, leaving the Treaty untouched. This can be dealt with in the UK by using the Ponsonby rule.

In other words, this is completely a fuss about nothing, buoyed only by the unwillingness or inability of commentators to engage in matters EU and work out what is actually happening. But then, we are talking about a website that thought David Cameron was going to win the election. One need say no more.

COMMENT THREAD

Euroslime at the helm

Cameron must be pleased and a little relieved that the latest (and only) opinion poll gives a thumbs-up to his coalition, with 64 percent of voters approving of it.

There is, as one might expect, a strong tribal component to this result, with 87 percent of Tory voters supporting their man, and 77 of the Lib-Dims also backing the coalition - even if many of their activists are extremely unhappy bunnies.

Nevertheless, this is enough – for the time being – for The Boy not to have to worry about his critics, or to make any attempt at building a "big tent" coalition. In fact, if he really wanted to piss off people like me – if he deliberately wanted to maximise the piss-off factor – he is doing exactly the right thing by appointing Chris Huhne as energy secretary.

What might actually be worse is that The Boy probably isn't even aware of the effect of what he has done. Even if he was, he probably wouldn't care. In the Cameron book of politics, being unreasonable is objecting to anything he does. Therefore, the remedy is in our hands. All we have to do his tell ourselves he is wonderful, that everything he does is wonderful, and the problem is sorted.

However, life isn't like that. Not only is Huhne a rabid Euroslime, Booker in his column puts his finger on the more immediate problem – simply that he has no practical solutions for our looming energy crisis.

Instead of solutions, we got the stomach-turning spectacle of the new secretary and a beaming David Cameron standing side-by-side while Huhne proclaimed their dedication to halting "the greatest challenge facing mankind": global warming.

Both parties, Booker reminds us, are pledged to cut Britain's CO2 emissions by more than four fifths in the next 40 years. Both are committed to building thousands more wind turbines. And neither ever mentions the crisis fast bearing down on us when we lose 14 of the nuclear and coal-fired power stations which supply 40 per cent of the electricity that currently keeps all our economy running.

Fortunately (for my blood pressure) I didn't listen to Radio 4's Today programme when, in a "babyish interview" – says Booker - Huhne wanted to put across two messages.

One was that, as a long time opponent of what he has described as the "failed technology" of nuclear power, he is not prepared to give any financial help to electricity companies wishing to replace our ageing nuclear power stations. (This we knew already since, although he didn't say so, any subsidy would be against EU rules.)

The other was that "the most scandalous legacy of the past 13 years" is that we haven't been going all out for wind power, tidal power and wave power. This he now intends to remedy as the centrepiece of his policy.

And that is what is truly terrifying about putting Huhne in charge of Britain's energy policy. Like the rest of the Cleggerons, he clearly hasn't the slightest practical understanding of what is involved – which Booker then goes on adequately to demonstrate.

There are only two possible outcomes of all those "green" delusions which Huhne and Cameron seem to share, says Booker. First, our energy bills will soar to astronomic levels, pushing millions more households into "fuel poverty". Second, we can look forward to a time when power cuts are as common as they are in South Africa, which is now going for nuclear as hard as it can.

In the name of fighting an imaginary problem, Booker concludes, we are soon going to have an imaginary economy – and Huhne's name will join all the others on its tombstone.

In between then and now, however, a lot of other people – old, cold people - will have their names prematurely appended to tombstones. Doubtless, Euroslime such as Huhne will consider this a small sacrifice to pay for the cause of global warming. And, as The Boy stands foursquare alongside him, we shall know him by the company he keeps.

One just hopes that Booker's headline is accurate in its broader sense.

RESHUFFLE THREAD

Joke of the day

At least little Georgie Osborne is about to get an education – albeit at our expense – on the realities of the European Union. Imbued with his fatuous master's slogan "in Europe but not ruled by Europe", the fool goes to Brussels (a good title for a book methinks) this week to learn that the UK has been well and truly stuffed over hedge fund and private equity regulations – and that there is not a thing he can do about it.

This, of course, will not be the last time that the grubby little Cleggerons will have to kow-tow to their real masters, which makes their claim to be pursuing "new politics" a bit of a hollow joke. I think we would prefer "old politics", the type where parliament was in charge and we didn't have our ministers doffing their caps to Brussels and asking permission every time they needed to go to the toilet.

But joke of the day comes from the new Lord Chancellor, Kenneth Clarke, who blithely declares that he has "very strong views" on the independence of the judiciary.

There is something not quite right with the brains of these people. This is the Euroslime who is content to see the ECJ over-rule the British courts – to say nothing of the Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg doing likewise - thereby subordinating our courts to an alien and highly political construct. Yet, without so much of a blush, he can talk glibly about an "independent judiciary".

What is equally amazing is that anyone should take these fools seriously. They are not fit for government. They are low-grade, grubby chancers who should not even be trusted to sweep the streets.

RESHUFFLE THREAD

A false and perverse interpretation

In a fascinating article in The Guardian, Nick Clegg defends his decision to spurn a Labour coalition, "saying it would have been unworkable and regarded as illegitimate by the British people".

However, he then acknowledges that his party's decision has, "caused both surprise and with it some offence." He adds: "There are those on both the left and right who are united in thinking this should not have happened."

There, he is dead right. Whatever else, the man-child is not stupid. There are many who do think this should not have happened – and still think it should not have happened.

Clegg goes on to offer his version of "the truth", claiming that "there was no other responsible way to play the hand dealt to the political parties by the British people at the election." In fact, as we noted, they were given an unplayable hand. Creating this electoral monstrosity does not solve the problem.

The man tells us that, "No government – whether it's a coalition of parties, or a coalition of rivalries as in the Blair-Brown governments – is able to survive without a core set of common assumptions and aspirations."

Once again, he is dead right, although he fails to note also that no government can survive if it holds a "set of common assumptions and aspirations" which are at odds with those of the people. This wholly artificial and unnatural construct does precisely that.

What he and his fellow creatures seem to have difficulty understanding is that they are "not wanted on passage". He chooses to interpret the election result as a message from the people telling the politicians "explicitly" that they didn't want just one party in charge.

That is a false and perverse interpretation. The people rejected the choice offered them, declaring in effect "a plague on all your houses". And especially, they rejected the creed of the Lib-Dims.

Despite that, Clegg still believes "we" – i.e., the political classes - "had a duty to find a way for more than one party to govern effectively." In actuality, their real "duty" is to go away and die ... electorally-speaking. That was and is the message. Short of painting it in their blood on the walls of No 10, it could not have been more explicit. What part of "piss off" do they have difficulty in understanding?

RESHUFFLE THREAD

A growing backlash

Following his attempt to install his own Enabling Act, Cameron is facing his first backbench rebellion.

But one particularly delights in the comments of Charles Walker, the Conservative MP for Broxbourne. He dismissed the plan as being introduced for the "con-Parliament", adding: "It is not the duty of Parliament to prop up this coalition. That is the duty of the coalition partners and if they can't make it work and if they lose the confidence of Parliament then we must have a general election. It is a simple as that."

Walker then goes on to say that: "This is a matter of convenience because clearly the leader of our party, David Cameron, wants a five-year Parliament and the Liberal Democrats want fixed terms and they don't want there to be a general election along the way." But, he says, "if Parliament and the nation lose confidence in this coalition government there should be a general election, whether that is in two years or three years or four years. This is about the primacy of Parliament."

Although there is something of a similar system in the joke parliament in Scotland – which devotes most of its time to devising ingenious ways of spending English money – such a change in Westminster would involve a significant constitutional change. For that, Cameron has absolutely no mandate (not that he has one on anything, with 23.5 percent of the popular vote).

That the man could even countenance such a change is quite staggering, and one hopes that the good sense of a few remaining MPs, who at least are rooted in the concept of parliamentary primacy, will stop him in his tracks.

And that may not be all. As the reality of this Cleggeron coalition begins to be understood, one is seeing increasing reservations being expressed. The very ethos is so far from anything that could be considered approaching conservative values that many of those who voted for the Conservative Party now believe their votes were obtained under false pretences.

It is highly ironic, therefore, that politicians who a few days ago were complaining about an unelected prime minister in Gordon Brown have ended up championing a completely unelected government, and one which bears no resemblance to anything anyone actually voted for. As the enormity of this dawns, the reactions are going to be interesting indeed.

The question is not whether, but how soon this is going to fall apart.

RESHUFFLE THREAD

Doomed

Climate change is in our view the greatest challenge for mankind. So says Huhne, alongside the not-so-supreme-leader, who says: "I want this to be the greenest government ever".

This patronising, simpering cretin actually believes this crap. The world currency system is on the edge of meltdown, and he's prattling about departmental energy targets and climate change. We are well and truly doomed ... and so say we all.

RESHUFFLE THREAD

Crash and burn?

If the euro was an aeroplane, it would look rather like the doomed specimen depicted. The signs have been with us for a while but The Times charts the latest developments, with the euro crashing to an 18-month low against the dollar, falling below the $1.25 level for the first time since March last year.

Also caught in the turmoil is the FTSE 100 index, which had tumbled by 102.6 points to 5,331.17 by mid-morning. Perversely, the pound also weakened, falling 0.4 percent against the dollar to $1.453 and also against the euro, which was worth 85.86p.

All of this has to be seen against the backdrop of the continuing efforts to bail out Greece and stop the contagion spreading, not helped by seamy details emerging over Sarkzoy's threat to withdraw France from the single currency.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard thinks we are now near – or beyond – the point of no return. The moment of definition is fast arriving from Britain, he writes. The measures now being demanded to save monetary union cannot and (he says) will not be accepted by this government, Nick Clegg notwithstanding.

The outcome – une véritable gouvernement économique – will put Britain and the eurozone on such separate courses that it will amount to separation in all but name. The sooner we get the nastiness of divorce behind us, the better.

Stirring stuff this is, but there is nowhere any sense that the seriousness of the situation is recognised in Whitehall or Westminster. This is worrying. We might not be on board the doomed ship, but we are not going to walk away unscathed from the wreckage.

GREEK THREAD

Wrong, as usual

The state broadcasting apparatus is reporting a study which claims that climate change could wipe out 20 percent of the world's lizard species by 2080. They have got it wrong. As any fule noes, the lizards have changed their shapes, donned latex masks and joined the government (or become climate scientists).

CLIMATE CHANGE NEW THREAD

A culture of dishonesty

A good test for this new government will be a report produced by the Centre for Crime and Justice Studies at King's College, London.

It is picked up by, amongst others, The Daily Mail, from which we learn that police are using dishonest methods to boost their pay, mainly through a series of overtime scams.

Thus, while over the last decade, the number of police officers employed has risen by more than 15,000 to 142,151 with more than 16,000 police community support officers also being recruited, there was no decline in overtime.

Instead, we have seen spending on overtime soar to almost £400 million last year compared with £209 million in 1999, in the overall context of spending on police having risen from £9.3 billion in the financial year 1998/9 to £14.55 billion in 2008/9 - an increase of 50 percent.

Interestingly, most of the bill has been picked up by local taxpayers through the police precept element of their council tax, which is something we have seen year-on-year.

We have, thus, a situation where, each year, the police put their hands out for more money – essentially to fund corrupt practices – and then turn up on your doorstep to arrest you and put you in jail when, finally, you refuse to pay for a service that is rarely provided.

Unwilling to go to jail yet again, we take the stance of refusing to pay until the bailiffs actually turn up on the doorstep, a small but ritual annual protest that at least makes a point, even if it is routinely ignored by officials who issue warrants in the name of "customer services".

The test for the government, then, will be whether it can break from the Labourite cycle of throwing more money at public services in the expectation that they will get better, and impose a discipline that seeks to obtain better for less, cutting the huge amount of waste, flab and – in this case – corruption that has accrued.

At this stage, our expectations are extremely low, not least because we still see the ritual cry for more spending on "dog whistle" issues such as law and order and defence, and very little appreciation of value for money. When, or if, we actually start seeing improved services AND a decrease in taxes, then we will have change we can believe in.

For the moment, the evidence is that we are to plenty of increases in taxes, and none at all – as yet – that there will be any improvements. We watch and wait.

COMMENT THREAD

Happy days are here again

An unfortunate choice of tie colour signals a change of the guard as the Supreme Leader of the Cleggerons eschews Mark Francois and selects in his place David Lidington (pictured) as Europe minister.

This is supposed to be taken as a sign of a Tory "thaw" on the EU. Liddington, as a former Foreign Office adviser, is thought to be less eurosceptic than his shadow predecessor.

However, Bruno Waterfield has already informed us that the EU is planning to dump on the not-so-supreme-leader (on an EU scale) by demanding early negotiations on plans for an EU "economic government", just at a time when he wants to reassure his back-benchers that he hasn't completely sold out (which, of course, he has).

With absolutely no concern for the not-so-supreme-leader's domestic problems, France and Germany are also planning to push through controversial hedge fund regulations next week after turning down British pleas to defer a vote in Brussels.

This will be the first serious challenge for little Georgie Osborne, who will have to try to convince the "colleagues" to go easy on the regulation – which will be decided by QMV – to avoid fatally damaging British financial services and making him look a bigger plonker than he does already.

Should he survive that bruising experience, he then has to deal with Herman Van Rompuy, the EU council president. He has set up a task force to build a new "gouvernement économique" to cover all 27 member states of the Union. The new body, with strong support from France and Germany, holds its first meeting on 20 May and little Georgie will be expected to attend and give it his blessing.

Not least of the issues which is likely to disconcert a man who would prefer not to have anything controversial to hit him just yet is a proposal that will mean that Britain would have to submit budgets to the EU for vetting before they are debated in the House of Commons.

This won't make any practical differences, as the Treasury has long cleared most of its measures with Brussels before announcing them, but it looks bad on paper and rather stuffs a not-so-supreme-leader who wants to be in Europe but not ruled by Europe.

Nevertheless, it will certainly give the emollient Mr Liddington something to do. He can explain to his counterparts that, with an amount of grumbling in the ranks of the former Tory party, it might not be terribly helpful at this particular juncture for the Cleggerons to be seen to be caving into Brussels.

Whether this will make any difference at all, though, is moot. With the euro on the slide, the "colleagues" have their own problems and may be less than sensitive to the political needs of the not-so-supreme-leader. But still, there is always that nice Mr Clegg who can tell all those happy former Tory back benchers how much nicer it is to be nice to all those nice Europeans – or something to that effect.

I've always wanted to see what an eviscerated Lib-Dim leader looks like.

COMMENT THREAD

Not one of them

"Vince Cable has been forced to let George Osborne take responsibility for reform of Britain's banks as the first cracks started to emerge at the top of the new coalition government," says The Guardian.

And you can see why ... look at the hand. He's not giving the secret Cleggeron salute. He's not one of them. By comparison, pictured right is the Supreme Leader, producing the classic salute. Note how many times in photographs, where he responding to cameras, he is seen to adopt exactly the same hand sign.

Now that the secret is revealed, of course, we will see many Cleggerons seeking to disguise their true identities. But, no matter how hard they try, in due course, the latex will crack. The truth will out.



RESHUFFLE THREAD

Frankly, I'm amazed (not)

Reuters is telling us that Merkel has said that the euro's troubles offered a chance for the EU to strengthen its economic and political union, not just its common currency.

Speaking at a ceremony in Aachen where Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk was awarded the Charlemagne Prize for furthering European unity, she said the future of the EU was at stake in the challenges to its monetary amalgamation.

"If the euro fails, not only the currency fails. Europe fails too, and the idea of European unification. We have a common currency, but no common political and economic union. And this is exactly what we must change. To achieve this - therein lies the opportunity of this crisis."

Merkel was confident that Europe would overcome the crisis in her speech in Aachen, a western German city that was for centuries the place of coronation of German kings.

"The euro is more than just our currency. It is the furthest achievement of European integration so far. It stands for the European ideal. And I stick to my vision that one day, all EU member states will also have the euro as a currency," she said.


There it is in all its glory ... the beneficial crisis. The only surprising thing is that Merkel is being so open and candid. But then, the continentals usually are. It tends only to be the British politicians, either through delusion, stupidity or knavery, who deny the true agenda.

And, of course, this is why the "colleagues" can't afford to let the euro fail. It always was, is and always will be a political construct ... supported, incidentally, by Ken Clarke and others, the fifth column who are now in government. Can we shoot them now?

COMMENT THREAD

That other election

In 1933, a certain party just failed to win an overall majority, polling 43.9 percent of the vote. To take power, therefore, it too formed a coalition government.

Once in power, of course, it passed the Enabling Act aimed at keeping the ruling party in power. Today, we have the "enhanced majority" requirement, the Cleggerons' own version of the Enabling Act, to prevent them from being deposed. With 55 percent of MPs required to vote for a dissolution of parliament, they will have the ideal mechanism in place.

Gordon Brown must be kicking himself. If only he'd thought of it, he could still be in No 10.

RESHUFFLE THREAD

The plans are revealed

As always, the MSM are behind the curve when it comes to what is really happening. A quick look at Google offers over 2,400 results for "cleggeron" on the web. A search of the news pages, however, yields a mere two.

Meanwhile, prior to a full meeting of the Cleggeron High Command in a cupboard in Downing Street, energy minister Chris Huhne revealed to the state broadcasting apparatus the hitherto secret plan for the destruction of the UK.

Giving the secret Cleggeron salute (pictured – look at the little finger), Huhne told earthling Roger Harrabin that he would pretend to support nuclear power but in fact do everything he could to prevent it happening, thereby ensuring huge power cuts and the collapse of the economy (although he will have to hurry there - Osborne has a head start).

Huhne told Harrabin that the "most scandalous legacies" of the Labour earthlings was their failure to capitalise on renewables, signalling the intent to cover the land with wind turbines. However, in truth, these are secret transmitters for keeping in touch with the Cleggeron empire.

After the Supreme Leaders had conferred yesterday from their converted wheelie bins in the garden of Downing Street, they joined Huhne and the other Cleggerons for a "wonderful meeting" during which earth transmitting devices were banned.

State broadcasting representative Laura Kuenssberg afterwards revealed that earthlings were being "encouraged" to keep their differences quiet. A Special Committee is being set up by the Supreme Leader and his deputy to "thrash out" any disagreements.

A spokesman for a newly emerging opposition group, the Voice Of The English Resistance (VOTER), said it was too early to tell what punishment devices would be used as, so far, the Cleggerons were keen to show their latex human faces. All would be revealed in good time, he said from his secret hideout near Ongar.

RESHUFFLE THREAD

And then the riots

Two privately-educated, white, male millionaires prattling about their vision of "politics", without the first idea of what they are talking about. We're in a sort of honeymoon period at the moment, where some are saying "give them a chance". Nope. These Crapperoons are seriously bad news – they may not have the gauche, sullen demeanour of Gordon Brown, but they are far more dangerous.

Stephen Glover in the Daily Mail isn't impressed either. He is one of a growing band – which will get larger with alarming speed. And then the riots will begin.

RESHUFFLE THREAD

Work in progress

We're working on a new blog. The first draft is here. Whaddaya think?

RESHUFFLE THREAD

Defence on the back burner?

It is interesting to note that the "strong and stable government" foreseen by the Cleggeron coalition agreement does not run to dealing with the vital area of defence, other than brief statements about the future of Trident and the need for a strategic defence review.

As Think Defence points out, in the 3,000 published words of the agreement we get a commitment to make possession of illegal timber a criminal offence but nothing about Afghanistan, that very same Afghanistan where thousands of UK service personnel are currently in harm's way, where we are fighting and losing a war and where billions of pounds are draining into the desert sands.

Defence, we are told, will be followed "in due course" by a final Coalition Agreement, which hardly suggests the degree of urgency that the Cleggeron leaders have sought to imply is necessary.

Given that neither of the parties have had anything intelligent to say about the strategic situation in Afghanistan, it is perhaps unsurprising that they have failed to rise to the occasion now, leaving Liam Fox, as newly-appointed secretary of state for defence, to attempt something approaching a coherent policy.

This has not stopped the Tory defence team in the past being heavily critical of Labour efforts, but with Fox now in the hot seat, it is time for him to deliver. Relegating the issue of Afghanistan to the second-tier coalition agreement is not a good start. We need something more than that – and fast.

RESHUFFLE THREAD

And even worser

Edict #2701 from the Cleggeron High Command is set to abolish parliamentary democracy.

In a change from current procedures, where a government may be defeated in the Commons by a single vote majority, the Cleggerons are introducing the concept of an "enhanced majority". In future, the votes of 55 percent of MPs are required before a vote of no confidence can succeed.

By such means, the Cleggerons are locking themselves into power for the next five years – until May 2015. "This is a five-year arrangement," says the Supreme Leader: "... so much better than the alternative." "A political revolution is under way," says the state broadcasting apparatus. A political coup, more like it.

A dictatorship is thus born ... but it will be short-lived. The real world is rapidly catching up on these clowns. At least it will save us the trouble of having to shoot them. When this little lot catches up with them, they will be beaten to death by the mob.

RESHUFFLE THREAD