He's right

"The public has now so lost interest in politics ... that having a few more months of this Parliament may distress commentators and the highly politically motivated, but it probably won't matter at all to the electorate." That is Heffer in The Daily Telegraph today, talking about the Queen's speech.

He is right, after a fashion. It is almost as if a light had gone out - we look at our political classes performing and it is like watching an obscure soap opera on the television, broadcast in a foreign language. But it is not only a lack of interest. Simply, what is going on has no meaning, no relationship with the real world, no relevance, nothing to which people can relate.

Where there was once stuff of seemingly vital interest, where you would drop whatever it was that you were doing to watch the TV, is now of no relevance at all. Many times, I find myself skipping over political stories in the newspaper, or on the net – one simply can't be bothered listening to or reading what they have to say. As for political blogs, without even realising it, I've largely stopped reading them ... not consciously – one just forgets them.

To suggest that this is apathy would be completely to misunderstand the mood. "Indifference" gets close, but it even that does not really describe it. The mood is larded with cold contempt, the sort that could very easily turn into anger ... if we could even be bothered.

Elsewhere, we see that awful story of the man stuck head-first in a drain, screaming for help only to have his cries ignored. Unaware of his plight, his neighbours simply rolled over and went back to sleep.

The closest we can get perhaps is that, even if we were aware that the political system had its head stuck in a drain and was drowning (which is probably the case), we would still roll over and go back to sleep. It is that bad.

COMMENT THREAD

Dreams of Empire

It would not have been the first time we have observed that the EU is very strident about other people – like member states – "respecting" their obligations, but whenever the boot is on the other foot, it invariably goes AWOL.

The latest evidence of that propensity comes from the New York Times, which is rather pointedly telling us: "EU Mission to Train Afghan Police in Disarray".

Two-and-a-half years after our beloved Empire took over the responsibility for managing it from Germany, the EU's police training mission in Afghanistan is still understaffed, lacks security and transport, and has yet to develop a uniform training program.

That is according to the diplomats and security experts involved in the mission and, we are told, "the failure in setting up the 400-person mission could be a fatal flaw as several European countries fighting there are linking a withdrawal date with the ability of the Afghan Army and police forces to take over responsibility for security."

One of the most voluble critics is Piotr Krawczyk, a security expert at the Polish Institute of International Affairs and former deputy head of the Polish Embassy in Kabul. He condemns the mission a "a logistical nightmare," claiming that there is a "complete lack of coordination between the EU institutions in Afghanistan and between the other big players, including the United Nations and NATO."

So dire has the situation become that Nato is now to start its own police training program which, needless to say, will be financed by the United States. Combined with training the Afghan Army, the US government will provide $10 billion in 2010. By comparison, the EU's budget for this year is €64 million, or $95 million.

Those with longer memories will recall that EU member states originally committed to providing 400 trainers and personnel, something foreign ministers of the EU member states in have just admitted they have failed to do. Even the Frau Merkel has failed to step up to the plate, promising to send 120 police officers and civilian experts this year. So far, she has sent 46.

"The bottom line is that there is a lack of political will among the member states and a lack of security on the ground for the EU to do the job properly," said Kees Homan, an Afghanistan expert at Clingendael, the Netherlands Institute of International Relations.

And now we get a joint letter from Solana and foreign minister Carl Bildt of Sweden, holds the EU's rotating presidency, sent to all EU foreign, defence and interior ministers. "Delivering on our political commitments is a matter of EU credibility vis-à-vis the Afghan government and the entire international community," they write.

Well, they said it, not us. But, when it comes to credibility stakes, one of their problems comes under the "you couldn't make it up" category. A core reason why the "colleagues" are so reluctant to commit the little pink bodies of their "EU police officers" to the theatre is that they have no guaranteed protection from Nato if they come under fire.

This, would you beleive, is because Turkey - a Nato member and sometime candidate to join the EU - and Greece, also a member of Nato and already in the EU, have been blocking a security accord which would allow Nato to provide military assistance. So the "colleagues" sit at home and dream their dreams of Empire.

And this lot thinks they are going to rule the world?

COMMENT THREAD

Another battle

The BBC and others are reporting on the increasingly fraught negotiations in the EU over the selection of a European Council president.

Word was that he was supposed to be chosen over a working dinner to be held on Thursday, in the lead-up to the formal European Council meeting. However, we are now being told that the member state leaders cannot agree on a candidate, and that the negotiations might extend into the next day, or even beyond.

The selection though is being portrayed as a test of wills between the member state leaders, but what is not fully appreciated is that that is another player in the game – the EU commission – which has a vital stake in the outcome.

Historians of the EU will know that the original structure of the (then) EEC did not include the European Council in its institutional structure, the intention being that the supreme body would be the commission.

When the European Council was set up in 1973, Monnet intended it as a "provisional government", initially to provide the broad direction of European policy, until the commission was strong enough to stand on its own feet.

However, in the way of things, the "provisional" has become permanent, and with the adsorption of the European Council into the formal institutional structure of the EU, the "colleagues" have inadvertently created a rival power base, challenging the supremacy of the commission.

It is very much in that context that the candidacy of Herman Van Rompuy must be seen. As a Belgian politician, from a country which is traditionally one of the strongest supporters of the commission, he would be seen as a "safe pair of hands", who would not challenge the commission hegemony, and keep the lid very much on the European Council, restraining its ambitions to become the lead institution.

Behind the scenes, therefore, there is a vicious institutional battle being fought out. But this is not about the name of the candidate. Rather, it is a fight to the death as to whether the commission or the council will come out on top, determining the political shape of the EU for perhaps a generation to come.

As the commission's champion, Van Rompuy can expect a great deal of support, while the member states are divided on their own champion. If they fail to agree who to front in the lists, the Belgian nonentity could win thorough and the commission will have won the day. Until then, all we will see is the blood seeping from under the doors, into the couloirs.

COMMENT THREAD

Déjà vu?

An interesting read, from a Vietnam veteran.

Bad idea

" ... in a move designed to address public fears that allied troops could become bogged down in Afghanistan for years to come," reports The Daily Telegraph (and others), Gordon Brown has announced that he plans to hold a summit for the Nato allies to discuss a timetable for withdrawal starting in 2010.

He is to offer London as a venue in January and wants the conference to chart a comprehensive political framework within which the military strategy can be accomplished. "It should identify a process for transferring district by district to full Afghan control and set a timetable for transfer starting in 2010," he has said.

More on Defence of the Realm.

Well, I listened to it

Having written at length about many things stirring in the European debate (and no thanks to the main parties or their outriders) over on Your Freedom and Ours, I felt duty-bound to listne to the BBC programme. As it was Analysis, the only things that is even remotely rational and balanced on the Beeb, it was not bad at all.

Of course, it was still unbalanced, with four europhiliacs a.k.a. people who supported the idea of Britain staying in the EU against two eurosceptics, who wanted to come out. These were Lord Pearson of Rannoch and Daniel Hannan MEP. In all fairness, both put up a credible performance with Lord Pearson specifically demolishing the Common Fisheries Policy as a method of conservation.

It was all very civilized, which is a good thing, as we want to make it clear that this debate needs to be conducted. The two outlined several scenarios that involved gradual withdrawal and subsequent agreements and friendly relations. The other four, specifically Sir Stephen Wall, an arch-europhiliac admitted that nothing disastrous will happen if Britain withdraws though they all worried that people might not realize that somewhere down the line there might be bad consequences, such as loss of influence in the world. How anyone can still say that with a straight face, I do not know. As Daniel Hannan pointed out, tiny Norway has more influence in the world than good-sized, rich and militarily quite strong Britain does as long as the latter remains in the EU.

The stupidest comments came from Professor Simon Hix of the London School of Economics, who appeared to think that once Britain was outside the EU all goodies will disappear from supermarkets and we shall be back to boiled mutton and cabbage with no cheap flights anywhere. Just to state that, as Daniel Hannan said, shows how risible that argument is.

As it was not a debate in the real sense of that word, nobody pulled up Gisela Stuart MP as she produced the usual canard about Norway having to obey those "faxed" directives. The amount of EU legislation that Norway has had to accept is minute compared to the amount Britain has had to accept and much of that is because Norway's trade with the other European countries is proportionately far greater than Britain's.

The Norwegians do not have to accept EU legislation about fish, agriculture or oil; they pass their own legislation on most issues and are in control of their foreign and defence policy though they have always been stalwart members of NATO.

There will be two points that, I suspect, many listeners will remember.

The first is that the arguments against withdrawal have now turned almost entirely into threats. Will the other EU member states punish Britain? Sir Stephen Wall and Gisela Stuart thought probably not, Simon Dix thought probably yes and the Lib-Dim MEP could not make up her mind and just droned on about the beauties of having MEPs, Commissioners and other suchlike personages. In principle, she was in favour of people making decisions about the exact nature of the relationship as it happens in Switzerland but in practice, she did not think it was applicable to Britain. Of course not. Democracy is always for other people.

The second is the particularly important one. The BBC, in the shape of the interviewer, has now formally acknowledged that the debate is not going to go away; that despite no main party and no main publication supporting it 55 per cent of the population is in favour of withdrawal; and that the concept is no longer unthinkable. Though they still prefer to think that the people will come to their senses.

COMMENT THREAD

Nothing to lose but your chains

The little Beeboids must be getting a little worried about their favourite construct, enough at least to broadcast a programme called "Divorcing Europe" this evening on BBC Radio 4.

To judge from the publicity blurb, it will be the usual amalgam of "one the one hand, this – on the other, that", without coming to any overt conclusion, although you can bet that the subliminal message will be that it is all too difficult, so we'd better make the most of it.

As always with the Beeb, they go for the usual "talking heads", so – at least from what is on offer in the blurb – there is very little new, or illuminating. We see the same old sound-bites and the same over-rehearsed, tired arguments that we have always heard.

Perhaps, as it does with the EU, the BBC is aiming to bore us to death with the "eurosceptic" argument, making it so dull and deadly that Joe Average simply walks away.

There is nothing, for instance, at least in the blurb, about immigration from the EU, common asylum policies and other such sensitive issues, which would spark a real debate. Therefore, the essence of the Beeb grip – and the hidden bias – is what is not said, rather than what is.

As an example of just this, we have the notorious Europhile, Stephen Wall, who bemoans "a major loss of British influence" with the UK no longer being part of the EU. But he is talking about trade.

"There is no alternative way of advancing the British national interest," he says. In trade negotiations for example "the Americans play hard ball… you have to have the strength to hit them hard where it hurts in response. On our own, it's quite difficult for us to do that".

This is moonshine. As it stands, we have no voice in trade talks, other than through the Council, where we agree a "common position" with the other 26 members, and then are forced to leave the EU to do the negotiations, in which the French agenda invariably predominates.

On the other hand, as an independent nation – and one of the largest food importers in the world – we would have enormous clout, not least if we allied ourselves with the Cairns Group. Under our leadership, this could become a powerful third force in global trade politics, and help to balance out the monolithic blocs of the USA and the EU. In other words, we would have far more influence out than in.

That sort or argument, however, you will not hear from the Beeb, or indeed from the born again eurosceptics. Having discovered "Europe" rather late in the day, with the zeal of the convert, they are rehearsing issues which were being addressed well over ten years ago, with as little success then as they will have now.

We refer, of course, to the TPA (of which my co-editor has some views) – which is bidding for the position of High Priest of euroscepticism. Frankly, they are welcome. But, to focus on the money issue is rather old hat. More than two decades ago, when people were fully aware of the amount of money pouring into the coffers of Brussels (remember Maggie and the rebate argument?), it never gained much political traction.

If there is an issue which will get Joe Average worked up, it is immigration and open borders, but that is not on the TPA agenda. But, more to the point, eurosecpticism, under its new proprietors, seems to be locked into an 80s groove, with very little to offer, and nothing by way of a serious view of how we might look for a way out.

At the heart of the problem is the limited understanding of the way we are governed these days. We, for instance, have written of the role of international quasi-legislative organisations – such as UNECE. In this context, when it comes to the fabled "single market", many of the standards which are promulgated as EU law originate with these organisations.

This actually makes the EU merely the "middle man" translating the standards into law – and we could well do without Brussels, dealing direct and taking part in these international negotiations, as do so many other countries without need the EU to hold their hands.

All that, though, is detail. The real issue is independence – the right of a sovereign people to have their own government and their own legislature, which it can hold accountable for its actions. Without our own government, we have the status of slaves, and the universal cry of freedom has a resonance down the ages. That is, or should be, at the heart of the eurosceptic message.

That is a message you will not hear from the Beeb tonight, although you will hear about the risk of losing cheap flights – which are not so cheap any more, since the "colleagues" started loading taxes on them, with more to come. Should we keep our chains simply to enjoy the embrace of Ryanair – carbon allowances permitting? Tonight, we will not be asked.

COMMENT THREAD

Suffer little creatures?

"National Geography book Polar Obsession shows animals suffering from climate change," says The Daily Telegraph. And why are they suffering?

COMMENT THREAD

French state visit?

On Saturday, thousands of passengers were stranded in Xianyang International Airport in Xi'an, Shaanxi, due to the dense frog, China Central Television reported yesterday, as recorded by People's Daily online.

Who could they be talking about?

COMMENT THREAD

Exporting pollution

As EU controls on pollution get ever-more rigorous, our manufacturing base ups anchor and goes elsewhere ... like China, where it is destroying the environment and lives. And all our little greenies do is prattle about CO2, while Jonathan Watts of The Guardian give the PRC a glorious puff. They should be ashamed.

(via WUWT)

COMMENT THREAD

Partition

Sometimes the writing comes easy. Other times, it is a hard slog and you have to fight for every word. This one is one of the latter, another piece in the continued exploration of Afghan history.

Relatively short, it covers the period from 1947 to 1953, the period of and immediately after the partition of India. These events had a profound effect on Afghanistan and, in many respects, represent a major failure of British foreign policy. In the space of six years, the country changed from a cordial friend of Britain, well on its way to becoming a client state of the USSR – and we let it happen.

Of these events, I knew next to nothing until I started researching them. I am almost ashamed of my own ignorance.

COMMENT THREAD

The dominoes begin to fall

We said that Tom Wise was not the only one. Next in line is Mike Natrass, fingered by Daniel Foggo in today's Sunday Times.

There are reasons why an increasing number of people will not touch UKIP with a barge pole, and they are beginning to emerge. Behind Natrass are many more, men (largely) who have been running the party as their own private fiefdom, having lost sight of its aims and sold out to their own private greed and ambitions.

Fatally, such is their arrogance that they have been neither cautious nor discrete in the handling of their affairs, leaving themselves wide open to intervention by the authorities. The forces of darkness were always going to be gunning for UKIP, but the current actions of the leadership are equivalent to their standing in no-man's land having painted bull's eyes on their foreheads.

There has grown within that claque a belief of invulnerability, the feeling that "they can't touch us", not least because of the willingness to play the "victim card", as was done with the electoral commission affair, with many willing to believe that poor, innocent UKIP is being picked on.

Well, they asked for it, and the forces of darkness are beginning to close in. One by one, they are set to fall, and they brought it on themselves, betraying the party and the cause in the process. The only hope now is that there will be enough wreckage to salvage, allowing the party to be rebuilt with what is left.

COMMENT THREAD

Why we will lose

In his column today, Booker picks up on the theme we have been running on Defence of the Realm looking at Afghan history in the context of the current conflict.

Actually, he goes further, bringing it right up-to-date, whereas I am still plodding laboriously through the narrative, having only reached 1947 and the period just before the partition of India.

With what we have both put together, Booker is able to argue that "our armed intervention in that unhappy country is doomed", and I could not begin to disagree. He takes the line from the blog, telling us that Afghanistan has been for 300 years the scene of a bitter civil war, between two tribal groups of Pashtuns (formerly known as Pathans).

On one side, he tells us, are the Durranis – most of the settled population, farmers, traders, the professional middle class. On the other are the Ghilzai, traditionally nomadic, fiercely fundamentalist in religion, whose tribal homelands stretch across into Pakistan as far as Kashmir.

To DOTR readers, the narrative will be quite familiar, until we get up to the Soviet invasion in 1979, after years of Durrani rule, which Booker notes was to support a revolutionary Ghilzai government. I haven't researched that period fully yet, but he remarks how the eventual outcome was to lead to the dominance of the Ghilzai-run Taleban, toppled by our 2001 invasion when we again imposed Durrani rule.

As so often before, writes Booker, the Ghilzai have seen their country hijacked by a Durrani regime, supported by a largely Tajik army and by hated outsiders from the West.

One reason, therefore, why we find it so hard to win "hearts and minds" in Helmand is that we are up against a sullenly resentful population, fired by a timeless hatred and able to call on unlimited support, in men and materiel, from their Ghilzai brothers across the border in Pakistan (with the support of the Waziris and other tribes).

The situation is, of course, far more complex than that (there is only so much Booker can cram into his piece). There are many other factors which contribute to the current situation, but even the Islamic fanaticism of the Taliban is not new, or indeed the breakdown of some of the tribal structures, which has been an active goal of successive Afghan rulers since the 1880s, when Abdur Rhaman Khan first embarked on a programme of breaking the power of the tribes.

But whatever the layers of complications, though, at its very heart the Afghan conflict remains a tribal contest.

Thus, while in towns such as Sangin and Garmsir are there islands of Durrani, willing to support the Durrani government in distant Kabul, no sooner have our forces "secured" a village from the Taliban than their fighters re-emerge from the surrounding countryside to reclaim it for the Ghilzai cause.

Writes Booker, without recognising this, and that what the Ghilzai really want is an independent "Pashtunistan" stretching across the border, we shall never properly understand why, like so many foreigners who have become embroiled in Afghanistan before, we have stumbled into a war we can never hope to win.

Left there, Booker's piece ends up on a pessimistic note, from which the obvious conclusion can be drawn. But it has to be said that, for short periods in the history of Afghanistan, the tribes have been suppressed, although with a degree of ferocity that current Western mores would never allow. It is not that it cannot be done, therefore. More like, it cannot be done by Western military forces.

As long as we remain there, it thus seems, we will be the "piggy-in-the-middle" of an unresolvable tribal war. If we have an effect, it is to unite otherwise disparate tribes against a common enemy.

Should we leave, however, history tells us that the country will degenerate into a vicious civil-war, but that would not necessarily lead to another Taliban take-over. But what would emerge is anyone's guess. Traditionally – in the Raj days – our role has been to pick a winner, supply him with guns and money and let him get on with it, closing our eyes to the mayhem that results.

That is the reality of Afghanistan. But there is another reality: democracy has absolutely no place in the middle of a tribal war. As a system of government, it is entirely inappropriate, a society split on tribal (and ethnic) lines preventing the emergence of a demos, the very essence of a democratic system.

Eventually, we will recognise this – when the patience of our own people wears out and we refuse to accept the continual drain of our blood and treasure. We will then walk out, as we did in 1947, and leave them to it. The result will not be pretty, and could possibly drag the whole region down into a nuclear conflagration, which is one of the reasons why a clean break seems impossible.

From there, it seems that we have got the whole problem upside down. In order to prevent regional instability, we are told, we must maintain a presence in Afghanistan. But we have got to the stage where our presence in Afghanistan is exacerbating the regional instability, possibly to the extent that the cure is worse than the disease.

Logic suggests that we should seek to broker a regional solution to the broader regional problems, and then revert to the only policy for Afghanistan that has worked for the last 300 years – to empower one tribe to suppress the others, and let them get on with it, encapsulating the boil, rather than seeking to lance it.

In a sense, that is what the "Afghanisation" policy is really all about – building up the Afghan security forces - but the one thing missing is a strong leader. Karzai has demonstrated neither the will nor the capability to deal with the problem, and there is no indication that he ever will. In traditional Afghan politics, weak leaders are either assassinated or deposed, a new leader then emerging from a period of civil war.

By interposing our own requirements for a "democratic" leader, we have interrupted that process, but we have not abolished it. Hoist with our own petard, we are now locked into that unenviable role of "piggy-in-the-middle", saddled with Karzai for an indeterminate period.

There is, however, always our traditional escape route – an engineered coup d'état, opening the way for the leader of our choice. That, in the past, has not worked so well for the Americans. It certainly did not work in Vietnam and it is difficult to achieve in the glare of modern media scrutiny.

Short of that, though, Booker is right. We will lose. Our only real choice is whether sooner - or later, when we have the fig leaf of a Afghan army in place. There will be bloodshed either way, but the longer we leave it the bigger will be the butchers' bill for our own troops.

COMMENT THREAD

Climate emergency

Assailed from all sides by warmist preachers seeking China's aid in reducing the scourge of global warming, the mayor of Shijiazhuang has taken the unusual step of apologising for the lack of response to the latest weather event.

This is the region's heaviest snows in six decades, which have left 38 dead and thousands stranded. Beijing is also getting in on the act, pledging funds to help people caught in the storms while Ai Wenli, mayor of the capital of Hebei province battered 22 inches of snow this week, said that he and other city officials would strive to provide better relief to the city of about 10 million.

Premier Wen Jiabao has travelled by train Hebei province, adjacent to Beijing, to oversee relief efforts as snowstorms trapped thousands on frozen highways and forced Beijing's airport to delay or cancel 450 flights. Airports and highways in northern China were closed again yesterday as the weather service forecast blizzards in eastern Jilin province and southeastern Heilongjiang province.

"Close attention must be paid to changes in weather and improvements made in implementing response plans to protect people's lives and properties and minimize losses," the State Council said. "Authorities should place the work of protecting people’s livelihood, transportation and production in a prominent position."

Hebei, Shanxi and Henan provinces received the most snow in 60 years from 9-12 November, with the heaviest falls in a century in some areas. Storms on Thursday covered Beijing with six inches of snow, the city’s heaviest snowfall since weather data began in 1955. About 4.7 million people in seven provinces have been affected by the snowstorms, which have caused $513 million-worth of damage.

There is, nevertheless, absolutely no truth in the rumour that al Gore is flying out in his private jet for a photo-opportunity, and to gather further evidence for his next book on the perils of runaway global warming.

Nor indeed is there any likelihood of Louise Gray in The Daily Telegraph running a story about how six children in Hebei province were killed at two schools when accumulated snow caused cafeterias to collapse, or the student killed when a canteen at another school in Henan province also collapsed under the weight of snow.

Climate emergencies only exist when there are events which support claims of warming. Still, Barack Obama is due in the Beijing next week. He will sort it out – if the airport is still open.

COMMENT THREAD

The great divide

Lead item for The Times today is a survey the paper has commissioned on attitudes to global warming.

It finds that only 41 percent accept as an established scientific fact that global warming is taking place and is largely man-made. Almost a third (32 percent) believe that the link is not yet proved; 8 percent say that it is environmentalist propaganda to blame man and 15 percent say that the world is not warming.

Interestingly, while The Times makes a big deal of its own survey, that was that smaller survey reported in September, which had 29 percent of those questioned thinking the evidence on global warming had been exaggerated – double the number who held the same opinion in 2003.

That is vaguely comparable with this later survey, but The Times groups its various categories together to come up with the conclusion that less than half the population believes that human activity is to blame for global warming.

The paper observes that ministers have failed in their campaign to persuade the public that the greenhouse effect is a serious threat requiring urgent action, and it thus "will make uncomfortable reading for the Government as it prepares for next month’s climate change summit in Copenhagen".

But what is most significant is the response of the warmist community. Vicky Pope, head of climate change advice at the Met Office, interprets the survey as evidence that "growing awareness of the scale of the problem appeared to be resulting in people taking refuge in denial".

Ed Miliband, climate change secretary, resorts to the usual warmist mantras, saying: "The overwhelming body of scientific information is stacked up against the deniers and shows us that climate change is man-made and is happening now."

Predictably, therefore – rather like the EU – he believes the answer to the "deniers" is more propaganda. "We know that we still have a way to go in informing people about climate change," he says, "and that is why we make no apologies about pushing forward with our new Act on CO2 campaign."

And therein lies the great divide. Never once do the warmists concede that many of their so-called "deniers" have adopted their stance on the basis of good evidence. In their foetid minds, we must all be misinformed, and thus must be "educated" so that we can correct our errant ways. If we all row faster, they say, we might just get on board the Titanic before it sinks.

COMMENT THREAD

In defence of civil servants

Following this, we got this on the forum. I never thought I would find myself agreeing with MoD civil servants ... this is a truly weird world.

COMMENT THREAD

Moving up the agenda

According to a poll carried out by Politics Home, the European Union is one of the fastest-growing issues in the league of those regarded as important by voters. The other issue is defence.

Some 31 percent of those surveyed now consider "our relationship with Europe" a key issue, compared to 12 percent six months ago. There was a small peak in June, around the time of the European Parliament elections, but the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, and controversy over the Conservatives' decision not to hold a referendum on it, has seen interest reach a new high - the 10th most important issue, compared to the 18th back in May.

This rather underlines our proposition – shared by many – that the only reason "Europe" does not feature routinely high up in voters' concerns is simply because it is not talked about – not least because of the conspiracy of silence amongst the main political parties.

As to "defence and the armed forces", this actually scores higher than "Europe", with 35 percent of respondents believing this is a key issue, compared with just 9 percent six months ago. This reflects increased media coverage of the conflict in Afghanistan, moving the issue from 19th to 7th place in the league of "most important issue" within six months.

I think it has to be said that the increased concern about defence has not been reflected in much of the UK political blogosphere, which – with certain honourable exceptions – is trailing in this area (in contrast with US blogs). Neither do the main political parties seem to be giving this issue the priority the public seems to think it deserves. For us though, with our two blogs covering respectively the EU and defence, it is nice to be in the vanguard.

Despite this though, "Immigration and race relations" is still seen as a more important issue than either the EU or defence, with 52 percent of people now considering important, compared to 44 percent in early May. That will be music to the ears of the BNP, which cannot help but benefit from increased concern.

What is going to be interesting though is when people start linking the EU with immigration and, to a certain extent, with defence (to say nothing of "unemployment" which is one of the lead concerns). Once they realise the issues are interlinked, we may see "Europe" leap up in the ranks of "most important issues", leading – we hope – to unstoppable pressure for change.

To that extent, time is on the side of us "outers". As the Lisbon treaty bites, and the EU become more visible and obtrusive, we can expect more public interest, depriving the political classes of their current refuge, where they claim that it does not rank highly amongst public concerns.

COMMENT THREAD

No jurisdiction

This - an "eco-standard" for new buildings - is going to cost us a great deal of money, and create massive problems. Given the considerable imposition, and the contentious nature of the subject, it should be debated in and approved by Parliament.

But, the matter is being dealt with by our supreme government in Brussels. Our own legislature is not involved and it has no jurisdiction in the matter. "Environment" is an exclusive competence of the European Union.

This is but one example of many which illustrates how our MPs have become redundant. And they still want a pay rise?

COMMENT THREAD

Wrong end of the stick

As a not infrequent commentator on the state of the Ministry of Defence, it might be thought that I would welcome the considerable media scrutiny to which this lacklustre department is being exposed. However, the current focus on the bonus issue does nothing but fill one with despair, as the media chases after the wrong issue, firmly grabbing the wrong end of the stick.

Highlighted, of course, was £47 million paid so far to MoD civil servants as bonuses, but the other side of the coin is put in a letter today from their union, Prospect.

Written by their National Secretary (Defence), Steve Jary, it tells us that the bonuses represent 2.8 percent of the pay bill, "removed from basic pay over the last eight years". This, Jary continues "is in line with 20 years of government policy to increase use of performance pay in the Civil Service."

The reference to "20 years of government policy" is extremely revealing, as the current system of bonus payments stems from a much-hailed (at the time) Conservative government initiative in the mid-eighties – under Margaret Thatcher – in an attempt to bring the civil service more into line with the private sector, linking pay with performance.

The way this has been implemented has been that a proportion of negotiated pay increases have been converted into bonus payments, rather than core salaries, and linked to personal performance assessments. That they are paid, virtually as of rote, is another issue, but the fact is that the bonuses have been subtracted from salaries, to be paid separately, not added to them.

Furthermore, there is another agenda here, which works very much in favour of the taxpayer. Unlike core salary, the bonus payments do not attract pension entitlement – something of which the union has been very conscious, suspecting (rightly) that the bonus system is a back-door way of reducing civil service pension costs. In that context, bonus payments actually save the taxpayer money.

Another point made by Jary is that, if civil servants did not do some MoD work, it would be done by military staff – at twice the cost to the taxpayer. The photograph at the top illustrates the point. It shows a tank workshop in Belgium in 1945 and, despite the poor quality, it can be seen that all the workers are in uniform.

Currently, that work is done by civilians in the MoD's Defence Support Group, which currently employs 3,800 staff, counted as "pen-pushers" by an agenda-driven media.

And, adds Jary, supply of military equipment is undertaken by teams of civil servants and military officers. Most teams are headed by military officers. If they are under-performing, blame the military hierarchy as well.

That latter point is a point well put. While the focus is on civilians, there has been next to no attention on the military, and in particular, the top brass. Yet, as the Army has contracted, the brass has increased. In 1997, there were 228 generals – one star and above – but by 2009 this number has increased to 255.

Included in that number are 43 Major Generals, the rank of a Divisional commander. By contrast, Land Command (UK) has only six divisions, of which only two actually have troops, of which only one is actually deployable – and then only in brigade formations, which also have their own commanders.

Further, for an Army which cannot actually field one Corps (typically three Divisions), we have 10 Lt-Generals – the rank of a Corps commander, the same number we had in 1997. And, of course, all the generals have their staffs and aides, plus their servants, chauffeurs and perks, collectively siphoning hundreds of millions from the Defence budget.

Within the Army, it has long been recognised that the command structure is top-heavy, and the same applies to the RAF and Navy, the latter having far more admirals than ships. Yet, time after time, successive defence chiefs have ducked the issue and refused to prune the brass.

Equally, from the media, we have silence on this issue. "Pen-pushers" and "bonuses" are a much easier target, and avoid the need to do any thinking and detailed analysis of where the waste – and the problems – lie. As usual, we have to rely on a small corner of the blogosphere to do the work.

COMMENT THREAD

Yikes!

Who would have thought that the party of Gordon Brown could win back the seat vacated by Michael Martin, who resigned in June in the wake of the MPs expenses scandal.

That, though, is just what has happened. Jim Murphy, the Scottish secretary, says: "This is a humiliation for David Cameron; his face was on every Tory leaflet. They obviously thought he was an electoral asset." The Guardian says that the Tories' lacklustre result will damage their efforts to build up momentum for the general election.

The British National party came in fourth, just behind the Conservatives, despite losing its deposit. The Conservatives got 1,075 (5.2%) of the vote, the BNP 1,013 (4.9%). A close-run thing.

And another straw in the wind is the turnout. Among the 62,475 voters, it was only 33 percent, the lowest ever in a Scottish by-election. Low turnout and minority parties getting good (for them) votes - an dangerous mix. The Tories have not got the general election in the bag.

This could change, of course. General election dynamics are usually different from by-elections, but if I was Cameron, I'd be worried.

COMMENT THREAD

A common enemy

The next instalment of our romp through Afghan history, over on Defence of the Realm. We've actually got as far as 1933.

Political fodder

The Daily Mirror is waxing indignant over the alleged use by David Cameron of the Remembrance Day ceremony for a photo-opportunity.

This follows in the wake of the controversy of the Jacqui Janes affair, which this paper also thinks was exploited by the Conservatives, through its new ally, The Sun.

This development is noted by Conservative Home, while the role of the Murdoch news empire has been questioned in The Independent.

That The Sun is quite deliberately fomenting political discord against Labour and is supporting the Conservatives, is a matter of record, and the Jacqui Janes affair illustrates that the paper is prepared to go to considerable lengths in pursuit of its agenda. What is probably not known, but undoubtedly suspected, is quite how far the paper is willing to bend the truth to make its stories fit the agenda.

Not only have we seen the paper print stories that are not true – which is not unusual – but also where the journalists writing the stories knew them to be untrue at the time of writing. The key facts would have robbed the story of its political edge, and were thus quite deliberately discarded.

This, it seems to me, marks a new development in the degradation of journalism and of party politics. One is used to the idea of "spin" and all that implies but the process of inventing stories, for political advantage, is something much more sinister.

Not too dissimilar, it also seems to me, is Mr Cameron's use of the war dead as a photo-opportunity. Everything now has become a "media opportunity", a vehicle to convey a message. Nothing is so sacred that it cannot be exploited for political advantage.

That is not to say that, in their own ways, New Labour – which started the rot – is not just as bad, or that this new low has not left the Lib-Dems untouched. But it also spells the death of serious politics. As we lamented yesterday, instead of a strategic debate about Afghanistan, we get unseemly point-scoring over marginal issues, which serve no purpose other than to unbalance political rivals.

Whatever else, our troops in Afghanistan deserve better than this – but so do we all. Politics should be about issues, and while there is always an element of personal confrontation, we have reached a stage where the confrontation is everything and the issues are taking a back seat.

It is a moot point as to whether this process is now reversible – at least, in the short term – but as long as it lasts, we need to be aware that normal standards of truth and fairness (which were always low) have been abandoned altogether. Media has become propaganda. Events are now merely "photo opportunities" and truth has gone on an extended holiday.

COMMENT THREAD

The duplicitous British

Another long post on Defence of the Realm. More history of the people who are killing our soldiers ... and when you have read the piece, you will begin to understand why.

But is it legal?

Never mind, said Lord Willoughby de Broke, whether the Commission is doing the right thing or the wrong in meddling with the control of our banks (the wrong, as it happens), concentrate on whether the action is legal. On Tuesday he asked Her Majesty's Government

what assessment they have made of the legality of the European Commission’s decisions on the future of banks in the United Kingdom owned or partly owned by the Government, in the context of the expiry of the present Commission’s term of office on 31 October.

Speaking on behalf of said Government, Lord Davies of Oldham explained in a kindly fashion:

My Lords, the Commission may act in a caretaker capacity after the expiry of its mandate on 31 October to protect the interests of the EU, to fulfill its obligations under the treaty and to ensure the continuity of public service. The Government have agreed packages of measures in principle with Commissioner Kroes in respect of the restructuring of Lloyds Banking Group and the Royal Bank of Scotland. These are now subject to state aid approval by the college of Commissioners.

In parenthesis let me note that there was very little mention of Commissioner Nellie Kroes in all the announcements about the restructuring of those state-owned banks. Could it be that the aforementioned Government does not like people to know that its decisions are taken at the behest and direct instruction from some Commissar or other in Brussels, who no longer has the right to give those instructions?

Lord Willoughby de Broke chose to disagree with the Noble Minister:

My Lords, while I am grateful to the Minister for that reply, I am afraid that I am not satisfied by it. Nowhere does the treaty, under any article for the reappointment of the Commission, allow for reappointment in a caretaker capacity; there is simply no legal basis in the treaty for that. It therefore follows that, in all its actions since 31 October, the Commission has been acting beyond its powers. That includes the restrictions that have been put on the Royal Bank of Scotland in relation to the payment of dividends, for example, which disadvantages shareholders and pension funds. Can the noble Lord confirm that the Commission has not been legally reappointed according to the procedures laid down in the treaties and that, therefore, its actions are ultra vires?

The Noble Minister then informed the House that the Commission need not be legally reappointed and could just carry on in a caretaking capacity, presumably indefinitely. Lord Kinnock agreed with him, citing Article 216 though Lord Willoughby de Broke suggested that the Welsh Windbag (referred to somewhat more politely in Hansard) was not entirely accurate.

Well, let us see. Actually, I think the Noble Lord Kinnock meant Article 215 of the Consolidated Treaties (as the Constitutional Lisbon Treaty is not yet in force).

ARTICLE 215

Apart from normal replacement, or death, the duties of a Member of the Commission shall end when he resigns or is compulsorily retired.

A vacancy caused by resignation, compulsory retirement or death shall be filled for the remainder of the Member's term of office by a new Member appointed by the Council, acting by a qualified majority. The Council may, acting unanimously, decide that such a vacancy need not be filled.

In the event of resignation, compulsory retirement or death, the President shall be replaced for the remainder of his term of office. The procedure laid down in Article 214(2) shall be applicable for the replacement of the President.

Save in the case of compulsory retirement under Article 216, Members of the Commission shall remain in office until they have been replaced or until the Council has decided that the vacancy need not be filled, as provided for in the second paragraph of this Article.

According to Lord Kinnock this implies that the whole Commission "stays in office unless and until a replacement is appointed through due process, and that consequently the decisions taken by the Commission since 31 October are completely within the law".

I don't think that is what this Article says but the fact that it can be interpreted that way by ex-Commissioners who do not have to declare their pecuniary interests, tells one a great deal about the EU's contempt for its own legal structure.

As of October 31 there is no Commission as a new one has not been appointed. That needs to be remembered.

COMMENT THREAD

Banged up!

Tom Wise has been jailed for two years, according to The Times and others. That means he will do one year, less some, but the first two weeks are the hardest anyway. He also has to pay £30,000 towards prosecution costs - although he can pay that out of his generous EU pension.

It has to be said that the sentence is well-deserved. Had not Daniel Foggo picked it up, the fraud would have been much more extensive than the £39,000 he actually ripped off. But this was not just a matter of theft. It was an outright betrayal of rank-and-file UKIP members and the cause for which they stand, carried out, one has to say, with the knowledge (and tolerance) of other UKIP MEPs, who tried their best to cover up for him.

As Foggo wrote last Sunday, Wise remained a member of UKIP right up to this year, while an "internal inquiry" in UKIP under former leader Roger Knapman concluded that Wise's actions had been "honest and honourable throughout".

There is good evidence to suggest that Wise is far from being alone amongst UKIP MEPs in ripping off the system. Investigations are ongoing, which may lead to some more having their collars felt.

That there should be other politicians in the same boat is neither here nor there. We knew from the start that UKIP MEPs were going to be especially vulnerable to scrutiny from the authorities, so there was a special need to be whiter than white.

But not only was Tom Wise a thief, he was not even discrete - and then it took nearly four years to catch up with him. At least, though, he will now have plenty of time to reflect on his sins.

COMMENT THREAD

Way out in front

A seriously good piece, made better (but then I would say that) by the last paragraph under "further reading".

That said, it is a good piece, reflecting how the serious thought and discussion is to be found on the blogosphere and not in the media. Today, for instance, we get a short, superficial story in The Daily Telegraph on "Hints of Afghan exit strategy", yet we get nearly a full page on the "grieving mother" story, with Gordon Brown and his letter – with a complete transcript of the conversation between the prime minister and Jacqui Janes.

This is the media losing the plot, exploiting the death of a young solider as a means of attacking Gordon Brown. And it is an indication of the disconnect between the media and their readers that the public isn't buying it.

The greater loss, though, is the amount of space being wasted on such issues, when there is a desperate need for a real strategic debate over Afghanistan, addressed in wider terms than we have seen so far. One of the turning points for me was this piece, and regular readers of DOTR will see that I am gradually moving away from the "toys" issue to dealing with the wider strategic issues, with high-quality discussion on the forum.

It is this that one would expect an adult media to do, but it isn't happening. And, although there are some serious MPs who are actually thinking about the issues, they are in the minority.

If, however, we are going to extricate ourselves from the morass of Afghanistan, without leaving the whole region in flames – with potentially hundreds of thousands dead (as happened with the partition of India) – then the politicians and media collectively have got to up their game.

For the time being though, the torch-carriers are on the internet, but we can't do the job. As I have been known to observe, the blogosphere is a poor medium for serious debate. From our own experience, we find that the longer, better-researched pieces get fewer readers, so it is not in the interest of bloggers (if they want the hits) to take up the slack. The media is still a vital part of our democracy, and it - in particular - must do its job.

COMMENT THREAD

Spin and double-speak

Yes it did, and no it didn't. The Court of Auditors gave clean opinions on the legality and regularity of the underlying transactions for "Revenue", commitments for all policy groups and payments for the policy groups "Education and Citizenship" and "Administrative and other expenditure".

Qualified opinions were given for two policy groups. The Court concluded that payments for "Agriculture and natural resources", except for Rural Development, and for "Economic and financial affairs", except for expenditure in this policy group concerning the Sixth Framework Programme for research and technological development, were, in all material respects, legal and regular.

The Court then gave adverse opinions on the legality and regularity aspects for the policy groups "Cohesion", "Research, energy and transport", as well as "External aid, development and enlargement". Payments in these policy groups are materially affected by errors, although at different levels.

In other words, the Court signed off bits of the accounts, but not other bits ... the bits that just happened to cover the larger part of the expenditure. The press release is rather like saying that the "car worked perfectly", except for the engine, the tyres, brakes, suspension ...

I guess the media can be forgiven ... or not – depends how charitable you feel.

COMMENT THREAD

Somebody reads it

Harry Patterson (aka Jack Higgins) of The Eagle had Landed fame, with the author at Waterstones in St Hellier at last Saturday's book signing of Ministry of Defeat.

We had a long, interesting chat and the man then queued up at the till and bought the book. The photograph was his idea, and the photographer Ian Le Sueur later presented me with a print, in a brass frame. For all the evil in this world, there are still some nice people around. I was really touched.

At least we sold a few copies, and had the buzz of seeing the book in the shop window. I would be lying if I said the book was going well – it isn't, although it has covered its costs. Interestingly, we were joined by a young soldier, an Iraq "veteran", who had "been there" for six months. He has spent the entire tour in Basra Air Station.

However, I am not part of the gilded circle of correspondents who have tramped the foreign fields and thus claim the cachet of being there, so the book has not made the break-through I would have liked. But, I am told, it has been – and is being – read in high places (remarkably so) and there is some small comfort in that.

All I have to do now is explain to Mrs EU Referendum why I spent six months of solid writing, for a pittance that did not even pay the Council Tax ... not that I have paid it yet, although that is another story. Her name is on the summons, so she gets banged up in the nick, not me.

COMMENT THREAD

And the real story is?

Time and again, we have warned that nothing you ever read in the newspapers can be relied upon until it has been checked against the original source. We need to heed our own warnings.

Relying mainly on The Daily Telegraph, but cross-checked against this, last night we recorded that the European Court of Auditors had published its annual report on the EU's £110 billion budget and, "while noting some improvements in the management of funds, refused to sign off the accounts for the 15th year running."

But – prompted by a reader – we see from the Auditors' official web site that the Court: "is issuing an unqualified (clean) opinion on the reliability of the 2008 EU accounts." It goes on:

The Court concludes that the 2008 annual accounts of the European Communities present fairly, in all material respects, the financial position of the European Communities and the results of their operations and cash flows. In terms of the legality and regularity of the transactions underlying the accounts, the overall results for 2008 reflect the improvements in the management of the budget in recent years.

Unless we have missed something, there seems to be a slight discrepancy in the media accounts, compared with what the Court of Auditors is actually saying. Have we missed something?

COMMENT THREAD

Ignorance is bliss

On balance, it is much easier to write portentous leaders in a national paper when you don't know what you are talking about.

Thus does The Daily Telegraph leader offer its recipe for reforming the EU budget and reducing the fraud and mismanagement.

This is after the European Court of Auditors has published its annual report on the EU's £110 billion budget and, while noting some improvements in the management of funds, we learn that it has refused to sign off the accounts for the 15th year running.

But the leader-writer's idea of achieving "reform" is to have the new president making it his priority to encourage a root and branch overhaul of the EU's finances. It might, he says, "then be a job worth having".

The very slight problem, of course, is that the president of the European Council will not have any executive powers, and nor will the institution he will chair. The purpose of the European Council is to give "political direction" to the EU.

The man in the hot seat, when it comes to managing the finances, is the president of the EU commission – and we already have one of those. If he made it his priority to encourage a root and branch overhaul of the EU's finances, would his then be a job worth having? Or would it be better to get rid of the budget altogether?

COMMENT THREAD

Howling in the night

David Cameron, that is, according to Simon Heffer - when it comes to Europe

How long he [Cameron] can hold the meaningless new line remains to be seen. He must hope it will last until he has had his meeting with destiny – or, rather, the electorate – next spring, writes the earnest columnist.

Heffer suspects it will not be long after the treaty comes into force on December 1 that the full implications of it will become apparent to even the most casual observer, and with it the emptiness of Mr Cameron's promises. He does seem to make European policy without ever considering its consequences.

As Norman Lamont's boot boy, Mr Cameron had a ringside seat for the travails of John Major during the last civil war. He appears to have learned little from the exercise. Sir John encouraged false expectations and they were destroyed by the reality of the European project. Mr Cameron, even before he gets into power, risks making the same, corrosive mistake.

Perhaps when we all realise how much has been sacrificed for us in the name of European unity. Heffer adds, it will be easier for alleged sceptics like Mr Cameron to tell the truth.

One thing, though, is never in doubt. To pretend that Britain might one day dine à la carte from the menu of the Treaty of Lisbon would be just the latest grotesque deceit practised upon this country in the name of Europe.

The only thing Heffer is uncertain about is whether Cameron is "obtuse or simply dishonest." I suppose he could be both.

COMMENT THREAD

Cowboys and Indians

You get the feeling that our military haven't quite got the measure of Afghanistan. See: Defence of the Realm.

Leaderless

Divisions in the EU make it increasingly unlikely members will agree unanimously on the appointment of a Europe Council president and a high representative.

Thus are we informed by Reuters which records that Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt has been consulting EU leaders, but unanimity has proved elusive. He is now mooting filling the posts by majority vote.

With the British candidates effectively out of the running, though, the parochial British media seems to have lost interest in the "contest" – especially as this blog's predicted winner, Luxembourg leader Jean-Claude Juncker, remains very much in the running.

You have to give it to the EU though, when it even manages to make the selection of its president boring.

LISBON TREATY THREAD

Brigadier Anthony Cowgill

Died on October 29 aged 93. He had a varied career as a soldier; as chief industrial engineer for Rolls-Royce; and providing high-level liaison between many of Britain's leading companies and government policy-makers. But his two most notable contributions – illuminating one of the most controversial episodes of the Second World War and explaining the "gobbledegook" of EU treaties.

Two weeks before he died, from a massive and sudden stroke, he rang me to tell me about a piece in the media about global warming. Amongst his many attributes, he was very "sound" on this issue as well. While we were talking, I took the opportunity to ask him about his experiences in India, and he recounted that, as India prepared for Independence in 1947, he had been seconded to the Partition Commission, organising the separation of the country's armed forces between India and Pakistan

After that, he was assigned to the new Pakistani army. This led to what he described as the most worrying moment of his life. Returning to his Lahore headquarters one day he found himself, in British Army uniform, the only white man on a train overrun by thousands of armed Pathan tribesmen bent on seizing Kashmir. Sure his last hour had come, he was highly relieved when, addressing him as "sahib", they treated him instead with friendly respect.

That story found its way into Booker's obituary of the great man in The Daily Telegraph. They don't make them like that any more. He will be missed.

COMMENT THREAD

Fighting talk

Been rather neglecting Defence of the Realm. Making up for lost time, though, a long post here.

Another nail

Belatedly picked up from Reuters is news of the South African Air Force cancelling its $5.2 billion contract to buy eight Airbus A400M transports.

Government spokesman Themba Maseko cites rising costs and delivery delays, while defence minister Lindiwe Sisulu says: "We have terminated the contract with Airbus but we've not terminated our quest to ensure we have the necessary capabilities. That is very clear."

Odds are the SAAF will be looking to Lockheed Martin and the C-130J for its "capabilities", knocking another hole in this symbol of European unity and "know-how".

Already (at least) three years late, we have had no further news of the aircraft's first flight, even though Airbus promised it would fly by the end of this year or in the first weeks of 2010. Yet, in December, participating governments are finally to decide whether to go ahead with the aircraft.

If the British government had any sense, it would be following in the footsteps of the South Africans.

COMMENT THREAD

A new wall

Twenty eight years and 91 days, the Berlin Wall lasted. But today, on the 20th anniversary of its fall, we are but days away from the erection of a new wall, with the coming into force of the Lisbon Treaty on 1 December.

The most difficult thing we confront is the fact that the wall is invisible – it exists in the "hearts and minds" of our rulers, who have erected near-impenetrable barriers between themselves and the peoples of Europe, pretending to represent them but representing only themselves.

Their new European empire thus makes each individual member state an occupied country. We are ruled by an alien power based in Brussels, which has never gained the assent of the peoples and which has never sought a legitimate mandate.

As the resistance movement grows, we will bring it down. And it will not take twenty eight years and 91 days to bring about that happy event.

LISBON TREATY THREAD

Business as usual

After abandoning plans to hold a referendum on Europe, following last week’s ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, reports The Daily Telegraph, Mr Hague said the Tories accepted that constitutional reform would not be on the EU agenda for some years.

Until then, he agreed that it would effectively be "business as usual" for Britain within Europe under the Tories.

And there you have it, straight from the horse's xxxx mouth. This is the brave new world of Tory euroscepticism ... "business as usual". And why are we not in the least surprised?

LISBON TREATY THREAD

Danger, North at work

A partial explanation for the light blogging. The Defence Debate over in Jersey. From the left, General Sir John Wilsey, President of the Royal British Legion – Jersey Overseas Branch, Air Marshal Philip Sturley, President of The Royal Air Forces Association, Peter Troy, chairman, yours truly, and Canon Dr Peter Williams, Vicar of Gouray.

Interestingly, I met an Army Captain today, who had been at the debate - where I had expressed serious doubts about the campaign in Afghanistan. He had been in theatre and told me that those doubts were very much shared by the soldiers in the field.

More when I get back home tomorrow.

Photo Ian Le Sueur

COMMENT THREAD

A war in the offing?

The Independent on Sunday records a senior Tory MP saying yesterday that Mr Cameron would have to move quickly in the first year and a half of his premiership and had to show "real progress" on his promises.

The MP said: "I don't think a promise of a referendum on Britain's relationship with the EU in more than five years will sit very well. He [Cameron] needs to make progress, within the first 18 months of his premiership. If he does, it will be his crowning glory, but if he doesn't, it will be a thorn in his side."

Another Eurosceptic backbencher said: "We have agreed to keep quiet on this before the election, but if things do not start happening in the first year or so, there will be all-out war for a referendum."

LISBON TREATY THREAD