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Under-estimation

Posted by Richard Tuesday, December 07, 2010


To add to their woes, areas of North Yorkshire underwent prolonged electricity blackouts yesterday evening, possibly reflecting a system under serious stress. National demand is considerably above expectations, reaching a peak of 60GW yesterday evening – with spot prices at £423 per MWh, compared with minimum cost level at less than £40.

What is also significant is the temperature graph (illustrated above). It shows estimates in three bands, with the actual out-turn also shown. The current low temperatures are well below the lowest band predicted – still more evidence that this cold weather has caught the authorities out.

Meanwhile, Scotland is taking another hit. Contacts in Dunfermline gave us precise depth measurements – 33 inches of snow to date (cumulative). Drifts, of course, are very much deeper.

The only compensation is the Ecologist (prop. Zac Goldsmith) squawking about "Big Oil" paying for the climate change exhibition in the Science Museum – something you read on this blog - while The Independent is lamenting the more "neutral" tone.

But if the warmists are now in disarray, it is only because they – like the authorities – are still failing to spot the signs. Even last year we were noting that "global warming" was coloured white and measured in inches. By the end of this current spell, it is going to be measured in feet. We should enjoy their discomfort.

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