Despite the growing splits in the socialist camp, AFP informs us that French supporters of the EU's proposed constitution outnumber opponents by more than two to one, according to an opinion poll released today.
Asked how they would vote if a referendum on the text were held today, 67 percent of those expressing a preference said they were in favour and 33 percent were opposed. And despite the recently declared opposition of Laurent Fabius, there is no difference between right and left wing, with 67 percent of socialists also declaring an intention to vote yes.
However, this is a majority of a minority. The real majority - 59 percent - said they would either abstain or cast a blank vote, which means that, effectively, support for the constitution stands at a meagre 27 percent. Furthermore, this is in the context of no significant opposition from a largely Europhile media, and very little public debate on the issue.
When the campaign gets going for real, the test will be where the current 59 percent intend to cast their votes.