"Nons" waning?

Agence France Presse – and agency with a distinctly Europhile tinge – is reporting that support for the "no" camp seems to be waning.

It bases this conclusion on a poll conducted by the CSA institute, which appears in today's Le Parisien, showing the "nons" at a mere 52 percent, a loss of four points compared with the last poll, released yesterday.

As pollsters will be quick to tell you though, no single poll can ever be taken as definitive and it is the trend that counts. On this basis, we have now had 20 consecutive polls within the space of a month indicating that the French will vote against the EU constitution.

However, these polls do not factor in the sentiment from the overseas departements - Martinique, Guadeloupe, French Guiana and Tahiti – which swung the vote in the Maastricht referendum.

And, as The Telegraph reports today, we may be seeing some dirty tricks being played out here – quelle surprise.

Of course, it ain't over until it's over and with over five week’s to go, the result is anyone's guess (although Chirac might have been given the figures already).