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The tide is turning

Posted by Richard Tuesday, May 03, 2005

A second opinion poll, released yesterday, indicates that sentiment is changing in the French EU referendum campaign.

This is another Ipsos poll, carried out for Le Figaro and Europe 1 radio, which reports that fifty-three percent of decided voters will say "yes" in the referendum, up five points from the last Ipsos poll.

The finding follows the TNS-Sofres-Unilog poll published last Saturday that put the "yes" vote at 52 percent, with nearly a quarter of the 1,000 respondents saying they had still not made up their minds.

A separate poll also released yesterday by the Louis Harris institute put the "no" camp at 51 percent, a drop of two percentage points from 53 percent.

Given standard polling error, the indications are now that the two camps are very close, although the "undecideds" are still a potent force. With just under a month to go before the referendum, anything is possible but, on current trends, it does seem that the tide is turning in favour of the "yes" camp.

There is a possibility that we may get our referendum after all.