In times gone past, Tim Montgomerie and his little friends over at Conservative Home were the principal cheer leaders for The Boy.
Anyone with but a hint of a disparaging word was definitely not wanted on passage. Links with EUReferendum disappeared from his site and we were cast into outer darkness. A real strain of nastiness emerged. Criticism was treated with savage disdain.
Never mind that Cameron never looked like a Tory. This was all part of a clever ploy to "detoxify" the party and to bring the Lib-Dim voters on board. As soon as he was elected, we were assured, the "true" David Cameron would emerge, more blue than dolly blue.
And now, as the scales begin to fall from his eyes, little Timmy whinges in The Mail on Sunday that things have not exactly gone to plan. "David Cameron's Government is very different from what so many Conservative activists had worked so hard to achieve", we are told.
Six years ago, during the first few weeks of his leadership of the Conservative Party, Timmy observes, he gave a long speech in which he described himself as a "liberal Conservative". He didn't talk about tax or crime or Europe or immigration. He talked about the environment, female candidates, civil liberties and other issues of importance to the Liberal Democrats. And how they all applauded.
At the time, many (including the gullible little Timmy) really did believe that this was "tactical", that Cameron "was attempting to broaden the party's appeal and that underneath he was still a true-blue Tory". But, as time goes by, the little lad now complains – for a fee - "it is clear that the authentic Cameron is the Cameron that laughs and smiles with Nick Clegg in the Downing Street rose garden".
Well, blow me down with a feather. We would never have guessed … er … except that some of us saw right through him from day one, and then made the "mistake" of saying so.
Despite that, we still get little Timmy telling us that, "it's not too late for Cameron to rebuild confidence in his Government and achieve a majority at the next Election – but he must stop appeasing the Liberal Democrats and embrace real Conservatism". "Cameron", says Timmy, "needs to put away the PR man's handbook and his embarrassment over traditional Tory beliefs".
Well, have we got news for you. He ain't going to change – with The Boy, what you see is what you get. There is no "inner Tory", and you are not going to wake up one day and find that he has embraced your ideals. In short, Timmy, do please grow up. After six years of self-delusion, it is about time you realised you've been conned.
COMMENT THREAD
Sunday, February 12, 2012
The sins of Harrabin
It looks as if the sins of Harrabin are coming back to bite him, this time via the Mail on Sunday. His partisan approach to climate change has long been suspect, not least because of his financial relationship with the University of East Anglia's Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research to fund seminars run by an "ad hoc" partnership of himself and a friend.
But now, a study devised by Harrabin to test the accuracy of weather forecasts, called the "BBC Weather Test" - estimated to have cost tens of thousands of pounds of licence fee payers' money – seems to be falling apart.
Seven of the eight forecasters and bodies asked to take part have not agreed, with two blaming Mr Harrabin for undermining the study's credibility, claiming that his reputation is tarnished by his close links to green groups who believe in man-made climate change.
Harrabin, though, also has a reputation as an apologist for the Met Office, so he is the last person one could expect to front an independent evaluation of its performance.
Nevertheless, that is how the warmist claque operates, managing criticism by ensuring that performance reviews and inquiries are conducted by friends and allies. But now he is being so comprehensively outed, the lad is looking more than a little fragile. His friends may not be able to salvage his increasingly tattered reputation.
The only surprise is that it has lasted so long.
UPDATE: See also, further comment from Autonomous Mind.
COMMENT THREAD
But now, a study devised by Harrabin to test the accuracy of weather forecasts, called the "BBC Weather Test" - estimated to have cost tens of thousands of pounds of licence fee payers' money – seems to be falling apart.
Seven of the eight forecasters and bodies asked to take part have not agreed, with two blaming Mr Harrabin for undermining the study's credibility, claiming that his reputation is tarnished by his close links to green groups who believe in man-made climate change.
Harrabin, though, also has a reputation as an apologist for the Met Office, so he is the last person one could expect to front an independent evaluation of its performance.
Nevertheless, that is how the warmist claque operates, managing criticism by ensuring that performance reviews and inquiries are conducted by friends and allies. But now he is being so comprehensively outed, the lad is looking more than a little fragile. His friends may not be able to salvage his increasingly tattered reputation.
The only surprise is that it has lasted so long.
UPDATE: See also, further comment from Autonomous Mind.
COMMENT THREAD
Saturday, February 11, 2012
The child snatching dilemma
This from the Daily Mail, this from Raedwald and then this from Booker. In a much smaller way, I have confronted this dilemma a different breed of officials - meat inspectors.
Given a marginal, difficult to read condition, it is easy for them to take the view "better safe than sorry", and condemn a carcase as unfit. But if they do that, and the meat is not unfit, they are throwing away good food, and depriving someone of the income from the animal. Thus, one expects meat inspectors to apply professional judgement and get it right.
The principle is the same with social workers, only even more so. One expects them to get it right when dealing with children and considering whether to remove them from their parents.
Wrong decisions either way are likely to lead to blighted lives and considerable public expenditure. And with Booker's copious evidence, it is clear that they are not getting it right. It really is about time, therefore, that our children's minister, Tim Loughton, listened to what he and many others are saying.
He might, says Booker, learn how misinformed he is. But then, that is the huge problem we have with so many areas of our governance. Politicians have lost the ability to listen.
COMMENT THREAD
Corporate speak
The five members of The Sun staff arrested, and now bailed, are thought to be deputy editor of the paper Geoff Webster, chief reporter John Kay, picture editor John Edwards, deputy news editor John Sturgis and chief foreign correspondent Nick Parker.
A Ministry of Defence employee and a member of the Armed Forces have also been bailed, to a date in May. One other journalist from the newspaper is still in custody over the probe into inappropriate payments to police and public officials.
Payments to police and officials for news "tips", however, go back to the dawn of time, and newspapers have a long tradition of paying their sources. Thus, whether this is any worse than what has always been remains to be established.
But, whatever is wrong with modern journalism, the worst of it is that way the corporates have taken over. Thus, with The Sun staff caught with their hands in the cookie jar, the management come up with this immortal phrasing:
News Corporation remains committed to ensuring that unacceptable news-gathering practices by individuals in the past will not be repeated and last summer authorised the MSC (Management and Standards Committee) to co-operate with the relevant authorities.These are no words any human being could utter. This is a breed of aliens that has taken over, without us noticing, the only clue to who they are being the way they speak. And as long as they exist, we are in very great peril.
COMMENT THREAD
Referism works
Picked up by Witterings from Witney, from the website which calls itself Vox - "Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists" – is a paper entitled: "Direct democracy as a safeguard to limit public spending".
This looks at Swiss public spending over the last century and argues that one reason for its low debt may be its greater use of direct democracy. People vote on individual policies, as opposed to representative democracy, where people elect others to make decisions on their behalf.
The conclusion is that direct democracy indeed causes a decline in public spending. Voters are fiscally more conservative than elected politicians, and the tools of direct democracy help them to get their preferences better represented.
The work is carried out by two academics, Patricia Funk, Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, and Christina Gathmann, Professor of Economics, University of Heidelberg, who thus provide direct evidence that the concept we have come to call Referism actually works.
They themselves call in aid several papers, including one by Feld and Matsusaka (2003), which compare data on post-war spending in states with more or less direct democracy – focusing on the United States and Switzerland, as the two countries which allow for direct democracy.
The empirical evidence, say Funk and Gathmann, points to a strong negative correlation between a region's spending level and the existence of direct democracy in both the United States and Switzerland, and they then are able to quantify the effect, finding a mandatory budget referendum reduces public spending by twelve percent.
Interestingly, they find that voter initiatives that allow citizens to propose new laws also lower public spending. For every one percent reduction in the signature requirement, public spending declines by 0.6 percent.
Furthermore, the constraints imposed by direct democracy at the state level do not result in more local spending. This result, they say, suggests that state politicians cannot avoid the disciplining effect of direct democracy by simply shifting responsibilities to lower levels of government.
If one then takes account of the effect of local referendums, where tax rises have been rejected when put to the people, the case builds for both local and national plebiscites to approve budgets.
Even more, these findings undermine the legitimacy of representative democracy. What might have once been necessary, in the period when it used to take four days by stagecoach to get to Edinburgh, is already rendered obsolete by modern communications and polling technology.
But this work shows that elected politicians are also completely out of step with the people they purport to represent. Their role, it would now seem, is to convey a false sense of legitimacy to the extraction of more money than the people would willingly give.
That says that representative democracy can no longer be considered democratic, without much greater involvement of the people. One can see a case where the executives (local and central) prepare budgets, which are then debated by elected representatives, who then make their recommendations, for the people to then accept or ignore.
We cannot continue, though, with the situation where governments decide how much we shall pay them, with no mechanism for the people to reject their imposts. That is not democracy. It is theft.
COMMENT THREAD
This looks at Swiss public spending over the last century and argues that one reason for its low debt may be its greater use of direct democracy. People vote on individual policies, as opposed to representative democracy, where people elect others to make decisions on their behalf.
The conclusion is that direct democracy indeed causes a decline in public spending. Voters are fiscally more conservative than elected politicians, and the tools of direct democracy help them to get their preferences better represented.
The work is carried out by two academics, Patricia Funk, Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, and Christina Gathmann, Professor of Economics, University of Heidelberg, who thus provide direct evidence that the concept we have come to call Referism actually works.
They themselves call in aid several papers, including one by Feld and Matsusaka (2003), which compare data on post-war spending in states with more or less direct democracy – focusing on the United States and Switzerland, as the two countries which allow for direct democracy.
The empirical evidence, say Funk and Gathmann, points to a strong negative correlation between a region's spending level and the existence of direct democracy in both the United States and Switzerland, and they then are able to quantify the effect, finding a mandatory budget referendum reduces public spending by twelve percent.
Interestingly, they find that voter initiatives that allow citizens to propose new laws also lower public spending. For every one percent reduction in the signature requirement, public spending declines by 0.6 percent.
Furthermore, the constraints imposed by direct democracy at the state level do not result in more local spending. This result, they say, suggests that state politicians cannot avoid the disciplining effect of direct democracy by simply shifting responsibilities to lower levels of government.
If one then takes account of the effect of local referendums, where tax rises have been rejected when put to the people, the case builds for both local and national plebiscites to approve budgets.
Even more, these findings undermine the legitimacy of representative democracy. What might have once been necessary, in the period when it used to take four days by stagecoach to get to Edinburgh, is already rendered obsolete by modern communications and polling technology.
But this work shows that elected politicians are also completely out of step with the people they purport to represent. Their role, it would now seem, is to convey a false sense of legitimacy to the extraction of more money than the people would willingly give.
That says that representative democracy can no longer be considered democratic, without much greater involvement of the people. One can see a case where the executives (local and central) prepare budgets, which are then debated by elected representatives, who then make their recommendations, for the people to then accept or ignore.
We cannot continue, though, with the situation where governments decide how much we shall pay them, with no mechanism for the people to reject their imposts. That is not democracy. It is theft.
COMMENT THREAD
Labels:
Referism
Dynamite on the Danube
What might not be immediately obvious to the British, dependent as they are on road haulage as their primary mode for moving goods around the country, is the effect of the great European freeze on continental waterways, and in particular the Danube.
But, as the AP, via the Washington Post and AFP are reporting, European shippers are losing millions because a lengthy stretch of the Danube - one of Europe's key waterways - is stuck in the longest freeze in recent memory. The Danube flows for 1,785 miles through nine countries, starting in Germany's Black Forest, before passing through Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Romania, and Ukraine.
The river began to ice over in early February as temperatures plunged to minus 20°Celsius (-4 Fahrenheit). The freeze followed an autumn drought in which water levels had dropped so low that they were interfering with shipping along the international waterway.
By Friday, though, it was ice that had halted shipping on 440 miles of the Danube in Romania. The river forms the border between Romania and Bulgaria and six river crossings were also closed due to the ice. Upstream, the river was also iced over in parts in the Serbian capital of Belgrade.
Costache Constantin, manager of Europolis Shipping & Trading shipping company, said he'd never seen such a drawn-out freeze on the Danube since he began working in the industry in 1981. "This is costing millions of euros", he added. "The transportation of raw materials, coal, minerals, cereals ... are all affected, construction materials too".
An official from the Serbian economy ministry said the commercial repercussions "could be very bad", while infrastructure ministry official Pavle Galico said shipping would not resume for 10 days. Bulgarian authorities, who have banned all navigation on the river, reported 224 vessels stuck in ports, and Ukrainian rescuers in Croatia reached three crew members on a ship trapped in the ice since Friday.
As a result of the conditions generally, we have already seen a statement by Siim Kallas, EU transport commissioner, but it is too soon for the "colleagues" to take on board the most recent effects of the freeze which, so far, is said to have killed 460 people.
It is instructive though that, in 2003, shortly after the heat wave which caused so much grief in France, the EU parliament was right there, on 2 September, tabling a resolution "on the effects of the summer heat wave".
It interpreted the recent extreme weather conditions "as further evidence of the negative effects of climate change" which underlined "that these extreme weather conditions are another sign of the need for ambitious world action to halt climate change". Thus were the MEPs asked to consider that the EU "should continue to play a leading role in this process and reinforce its efforts in the key fields of environment, energy, transport, etc".
Now, as the cold sweeps Europe, we learn that the self-same Europe "stands ready to respond to severe weather conditions across the continent". But, we wonder, whether the EU parliament will be quite so quick to interpret these extreme weather conditions "as further evidence of the negative effects of climate change".
Now they will have to consider the "evidence" of the "Blue Danube", commemorated by Johann Strauss with a waltz of the same name. Rather than strains of music, what is being heard now is the boom of dynamite, which is being used to blow apart ice floes in a desperate attempt to prevent catastrophic flooding when the expected thaw comes.
Somehow, I think the MEPs might be more circumspect this time – although, as we all know, stupidity knows no frontiers and, like Monbiot, they may still try to argue that warmer means colder.
COMMENT THREAD
Passing the buck
The clinics which fitted faulty PIP implants have a "moral and social duty of care" to provide aftercare to their clients. So says professor Bruce Keogh, medical director of the NHS (pictured), giving evidence to the House of Commons Health Select Committee last week.
He then acknowledges that the government has no powers or mechanisms to enforce that "duty" on private sector providers. Chairman Stephen Dorrell asked whether there was any opportunity for legal redress, and got an extremely equivocal response from Keogh.
Compare and contrast this with the stance taken by professor Laurence Kirwan, Harley Street plastic surgeon and Fellow of the Royal College of Surgeons.
Kirwan has taken exception to guidelines Keogh sent to GPs, NHS Medical Directors and plastic surgeons last month. Under the heading "Criteria for replacement of implants at NHS expense" the Department of Health's letter refers to private patients offering to pay for replacements from the NHS because they have been "failed by their providers".
"We have received a number of queries from patients with PIP implants supplied by private providers where the provider has failed in its duty of care", says the letter which was signed by the Chief Medical Officer, professor Sally C Davies.
But, says prof Kirwan, "I will not endorse the statement that the private provider has 'failed in his duty of care' because he has placed a perfectly legal implant approved by MHRA in a completely ethical and legal setting as did the NHS". He adds: "The fault lies with the regulatory agency and they should take full responsibility for removal as well as replacement".
Interestingly, not once throughout the Health Committee proceedings did europhile Stephen Dorrell mention that the CE marking system was part of the fabled Single Market, or in any sense suggest that the regulatory authorities bore any responsibility, even though it was admitted that there had been a "regulatory failure". He steered the committee very firmly to focus on the responsibilities of the clinics which had provided implants.
Back, in Brussels health and consumer policy commissioner John Dalli then had the nerve to call on member states "for immediate action to be taken at national level to ensure full and stringent implementation of the current legislation on medical devices".
However, in a de facto admission that the current system was defective, he said that the priority was "for the Member States and the Commission to act together to tighten controls, provide a better guarantee of the safety of medical devices and to restore patient confidence in the law that protects them".
Dalli has thus outlined his proposals for a joint plan of immediate measures in a letter written to the health ministers of EU member states, asking for their full co-operation in beginning work without delay.
This is on the basis of an earlier report from the commission, asking for "further scientific study" and drawing "first lessons from the recent fraud on breast implants".
Against that background, Keogh on the one hand is determined to contain the impact of this scandal on the resources of the NHS, while Dorrell seems most concerned that the clinics should live up to their "obligations".
Thus do they seek to pass the buck, so who is there to point the finger at the EU and its responsibility for a failed system, and at the French government for its failure earlier to detect the fraud?
And what about these europhiles who are so keen on the Single Market, which includes a single market in medical devices? Where is the "moral and social duty of care" of these people, who so easily seek to dump the responsibility on clincs who relied on the authority of the CE marking?
The attitude of Dorrell seems to me to sum up the europhile tendency – everybody is responsible for their actions, except themselves. They immediately stand aside when there is any chance of blame coming their way. When there is a "regulatory failure", the private providers have a "moral and social duty of care", which requires them to remedy it. If that is not passing the buck, I don't know what is.
COMMENT THREAD
It's euro time
… but not for very much longer it would seem. There is definitely a sense that we are moving to the end game. Prime minister Lucas Papademos had offered new austerity measures worth €3.3bn to secure the euro lifeline, but that was not enough to assuage the Gods of Brussels.
Before they deliver unto the creditors of Greece the €130 billion, they want another €325m in "cuts". Papademos has been instructed to get the €3.3bn programme endorsed and come up with a plan for the new cuts – to plug a gap in this year's budget – by Sunday.
George Karatzaferis, a Greek coalition leader, spoke of national humiliation and said he would not accept the new cuts, adding that Greece was labouring "under the German boot". The people are being given a choice between catastrophe or catastrophe.
This is not going to end well.
COMMENT THREAD
Friday, February 10, 2012
The fantasy of wind
We saw recently the utility of wind power in the UK (not), when installed capacity of 5.2GW was able to deliver a meagre 51MW (metered), contributing a pathetic 0.1 percent of the electricity generated.
In the UK, it was coal that took the load but, as the freeze continues to grip Europe, spare a thought for Germany. With an installed capacity of 27.2GW in 2010 and the addition of another 2GW (approx), last year, it has recently been forced to restart some of its nuclear reactors, after having imported power in December from neighbouring Austria to stabilise its network.
Thus, we learn from The Times of India, via the AFP agency, after the news had been reported in the German daily Handelsblatt. It was also reported by Russia Today and Press TV, although British media seem to have ignored the story.
However, it now seems that the nuclear element of the story might be wrong. Instead, courtesy of the Vancouver Sun, again via AFP, we get a revised story that the reserve generators are a coal-powered plant in southern Germany and two plants in Austria. A [coal-fired] station in the southern city of Mannheim, is also in use.
That is bad enough but, for the warmists, it gets even worse. Although we reported last January that an additional 11GW of coal-fired capacity was coming on-stream in Germany "this year or next", we now learn from the Union for the Co-ordination of Transmission of Electricity that there will be a net addition of 20-22 GW of fossil fuel-fired capacity by 2013.
Domestic hard coal consumption by EU nations through the first six months of 2011 was 64.9 million metric tons, up from 59.7 over the year-earlier period, and Germany was on track to import up to 48 million metric tons of coal for 2011- a total expected to increase as nuclear power capacity is phased out. Eight of 17 reactors have already been switched off and the nine reactors currently on line are due to be turned off between 2015 and 2022. One assumes that these will go only once the coal capacity is on-line.
Germany is often cited as the lead country in Europe for renewables and if that country is having massively to add to its coal-fired generation – and import electricity - despite having nearly 30GW of wind capacity, any idea that we can do differently with less than a fifth of the wind capacity seems to be fantasy.
COMMENT THREAD
Epic fail!
The Daily Mail is breathlessly reporting how a "tiny passenger plane" was seconds from disaster after being "'attacked' by Tornado jets and Black Hawk helicopters in mock war game".
The report is accompanied by a graphic (above) and photographs of the "helicopters" with what looks suspiciously like photoshopped RAF roundels and Union Jacks on the tail (below). The colour scheme of the machines looks very similar to that used by the RAAF (but see "update" at the bottom of this page), although these aircraft do not have hi-viz roundels - and neither do RAF machines.
What makes the picture and the accompanying report even more suspicious, apart from the wrong colour scheme and the different-sized roundels on each machine, and the minor fact that the RAF does not have any Blackhawk helicopters, is a reference to the official report of the incident, on which the news report is based. With my emphasis, the relevant (edited) part is reproduced below:
THE SF340B PILOT reports flying a scheduled passenger flight to Stornoway … on the instrument approach, 4xTornado ac called ATC to say they were E of the airfield. ATC advised them that a SF340 ac was on a visual final approach to RW36 and to remain to the E. At 1100ft on the approach they saw 2 grey Tornado ac straight ahead and coming towards them. A few sec later … the Tornado was then seen to pull up and away from them aggressively … They … then saw two black Hawk ac underneath them also manoeuvring aggressively …And there we see the error in the Mail report. The ace girlie journalist Katie Silver, obviously happier with more complex reports such as this and this, has misread "black Hawk" – an RAF advanced trainer (below) – and assumed it to be "Blackhawk", as US-built tactical transport helicopter (crew 4, capable of carrying 14 troops - not eight, as the Mail suggests).
Gallimaufry & Chips has more, but what must be doubly embarrassing for the Mail is that even the BBC got it right. But then, this is the paper that relies on Max Hastings for its military expertise – so what do you expect?
UPDATE: The expertise of our forum is hugely impressive. The helicopters pictured are Mitsubishi UH-60JA of the Japanese Ground Self Defence Force – a licence built version of the Blackhawk. Do the roundels look doctored on the Mail pics? I guess not, from looking at the original.
COMMENT THREAD
A byword for shoddy journalism
Tom Chivers, we are told, is the Telegraph's assistant comment editor. He writes on science, culture and anything that crosses his mind - the latter assuming, of course, that he has one or is capable of using it.
Evidence of this is not abundant in this piece, purporting to be an analysis on the recent report on glaciers. He is, however, taken to task by Bishop Hill.
What most people seems to miss, however, is that the insertion of the 2035 claim was not a mistake - which means it must have been quite deliberate. For this, we have as an authority nothing less than the UNEP report of 2009 (pictured), and Prof. Murari Lal, one of the authors of the IPCC report.
Lal says, quite unequivocally, that the IPCC statement that the Himalayan glaciers are likely to melt by 2035 had been made on the basis of a report of the World Wide Fund for the Nature (WWF) 2005 that had quoted Prof Syed Hasnain. He noted that "it was wrong to assume, as has been done in sections of media that the year 2035 had crept in the report by mistake" - see below right.
This, we explored in detail in several posts, especially this one and this, plus an article in The Sunday Times, which is now behind the paywall, although we see some discussion here. Then, there is the unequivocal evidence, outlined here, that Sayed Hasnain was quite deliberately and knowingly misrepresenting the glacier "threat".
Of course, we don't expect Chivers to be looking at the competition, and he would not stoop to read the likes of EUReferendum for fear he might actually learn something. But it would not be unreasonable to expect him to read papers from his own group, as in The Sunday Telegraph, where Booker has written some detail.
Strangely, though, Chivers finds a BBC source, quite adequate, which tells you a great deal about the man – and why the Failygraph has become a byword for shoddy journalism.
COMMENT THREAD
Evidence of this is not abundant in this piece, purporting to be an analysis on the recent report on glaciers. He is, however, taken to task by Bishop Hill.
What most people seems to miss, however, is that the insertion of the 2035 claim was not a mistake - which means it must have been quite deliberate. For this, we have as an authority nothing less than the UNEP report of 2009 (pictured), and Prof. Murari Lal, one of the authors of the IPCC report.
Lal says, quite unequivocally, that the IPCC statement that the Himalayan glaciers are likely to melt by 2035 had been made on the basis of a report of the World Wide Fund for the Nature (WWF) 2005 that had quoted Prof Syed Hasnain. He noted that "it was wrong to assume, as has been done in sections of media that the year 2035 had crept in the report by mistake" - see below right.
This, we explored in detail in several posts, especially this one and this, plus an article in The Sunday Times, which is now behind the paywall, although we see some discussion here. Then, there is the unequivocal evidence, outlined here, that Sayed Hasnain was quite deliberately and knowingly misrepresenting the glacier "threat".
Of course, we don't expect Chivers to be looking at the competition, and he would not stoop to read the likes of EUReferendum for fear he might actually learn something. But it would not be unreasonable to expect him to read papers from his own group, as in The Sunday Telegraph, where Booker has written some detail.
Strangely, though, Chivers finds a BBC source, quite adequate, which tells you a great deal about the man – and why the Failygraph has become a byword for shoddy journalism.
COMMENT THREAD
A man of the people?
Only the Tories could think this one up, and believe it could be a vote-winning strategy. Or perhaps it was darling Emma who thought that one up?For the rest of us, a Bronx cheer is a more likely response.
But one really does wonder where The Boy stores his brain when he is not using it (most times). He is, we are told, to investigate whether the Swedish "maid credit" system could be transferred to Britain.
He is said to have expressed interest in the plan during the Nordic-Baltic summit in Stockholm, telling delegates that he was keen to explore Sweden's experience of "encouraging and helping women go out to work". So, with the world (and certainly Europe), on the brink of financial meltdown, The Boy is in Stockholm discussing tax-breaks for hiring one's servants. One must get one's priorities right.
Shades of "let them eat cake", methinks. They are off their collective trolleys. Still, there should be plenty of Greek ladies ready to do their skivvying.
COMMENT THREAD
When is a deal not a deal?
When, it's a Greek deal. According to confused media (or confusing?), where events have been overtaken by events and headlines are all over the place, Greek political leaders have agreed to more austerity measures "that could pave the way for a new bailout and debt-restructuring deal".
The trouble, according to these and many other sources, is that the "colleagues" don't believe them, so the euro-zone finance ministers meeting in Brussels were not prepared to sign off on the bailout. They want "proof" that the Greek government is ready to deliver on past promises - and to implement new ones.
Other sources are saying that a deal has been reached – sort of – but yet others were saying that the deal is still being "vetted", even though it is still being hailed as a "breakthrough" which unlocks the €130 billion bailout package.
Thus, we wait, and we wait and we wait. But even if the Greek politicians do provide "proof", can anybody really believe them? And will the Greek people accept further "austerity", or will the Greek police finally run out of tear gas and the strikers rule the streets?
For these and many other questions, there is a paucity of answers. There is evidently a long way to go yet, as even the BBC seems to agree (above), with its interview telling us that all the finmins are prepared to do is agree the conditions for the bailout. The soap opera looks as if it will continue.
COMMENT THREAD
Thursday, February 09, 2012
"Europe is domestic policy"
Bruno Waterfield writes an interesting piece for Spiked Online, telling us that the European Union is "currently straining every sinew in a campaign to stifle outbreaks of politics across Europe". It was ever thus, though, as Bruno readily admits, reminding us of the behaviour of the "colleagues" on the constitution referendums, and will come as no surprise to anyone familiar with the history of the EU and in particular the views of Spinelli.
Thus, despite its focus on this issue, the main utility of the piece is in reminding us of the Merkel interview of 25 January, which was carried by six different European newspapers under the Europa banner, including our own Guardian.
What Bruno tells of that interview is that Merkel described the "new order" as having "obliterated all boundaries between national sovereignty and external intervention", allowing all aspects of politics to be settled by the EU. "In this crisis we have reached a whole new level of co-operation; we have arrived at a sort of European home affairs. Europe is domestic policy", she said.
Now this is extremely interesting, confirming our view that, since we are part of the European Union, which is also our supreme government, EU politics is domestic politics – despite our affairs being handled by the FCO and the insistence of most newspapers in relegating the EU to their foreign desks.
But what is even more interesting – and revealing – is that while Bruno uses the Merkel quote in the Spiked article, he did not refer to it in his own newspaper, The Failygraph. But then, and here the plot really thickens, neither did The Guardian in its report of the interview.
To get the exact words of the quote, therefore, one has to go elsewhere, and we find that it was quoted verbatim by le Monde and la Stampa, and then repeated by van Rompuy in an extraordinary speech on 6 February, from where Bruno picked it up.
In the 25 January interview (translated from the Italian), la Stampa has Merkel saying, "In this crisis we have reached a new level of cooperation in Europe: this corresponds, as it were, to a European domestic policy", while le Monde has "Europe is domestic policy" in its headline, which comes out in the text in a response to a question about a United States of Europe (below).
Both papers then go carry a question put to Merkel, that: "The British are not at all agree to define European policy as a domestic policy" (sic), to which she responds, cryptically: "I am convinced that Britain should remain a member of the European Union".
When we come to van Rompuy, we then see how he builds on that quote, where he tells us that:
I am convinced that this [crisis] experience will have an impact on the way the Union operates beyond the crisis, on the way we shape the Europe of tomorrow. Sixty years of integration has taught us that Europe is not built by dissolving Member States, but by infusing them ever more deeply. A slow process which sometimes gets a sudden push. As Chancellor Merkel said in an interview two weeks ago: "In this crisis we have reached a whole new level of cooperation; we have arrived at a sort of European home affairs. Europe is domestic policy".I would dispute that this is a matter of recent arrival, but the point remains that, whether recently or since the start, the "colleagues" now believe EU policies to be integral to member states' own domestic policies.
Van Rompuy, as Bruno reminds us, sees member state politicians implementing EU (i.e., domestic) policy, at the risk of electoral defeat, as displaying "political courage", but Bruno demurs. It is not courage to defy voters - it is actually cowardice, he writes.
Leadership, he says, is about taking people with you, about cultivating a public interest; it is not about ignoring people in favour of loyalty to the bureaucratic interests expressed by the EU. European history does not teach us that politics is better ordered without the risk of electoral defeat.
Seductive though that sentiment is, I don't quite see it completely that way. Bruno refers to the "bureaucratic interests" and the Eurocrats, whereas I tend to refer to the "colleagues", which includes the ministers, and especially the prime ministers and presidents of the member states. They are all in it together - the national has been absorbed into the maw of the supranational and the interests have become confused, if not actually fused.
What I think is actually happening is that our political leaders have aligned themselves so closely with the EU and its aspirations, through ministerial and council meetings, that they have a greater affinity with EU policies than they have with those of domestic origin, regarding the former as their own.
It has got to the state where the couloirs of Brussels represent the comfort zone of our masters – so for them, Brussels policy has become domestic policy, while those whom they supposedly represent back home have become the aliens. We the people are the aliens - "Europe" is home turf.
COMMENT THREAD
We are not surprised … again
Earlier optimism is misplaced and all we're getting is the same old, same old. But some people think we're moving to an end game, as Greece continues its death spiral, and they may be right. For the time being though, we have more meetings on the agenda.
COMMENT THREAD
I ain't happy
There is nothing which provokes a four-letter response, followed by the word "off", more than the idea that The Fatuous Boy is spending public – i.e., our – money on measuring how happy we are.
But, apparently, the cost is to escalate still further, having been expanded into "deeper philosophical issues". The "Measuring National Well-being" survey - to be sent randomly to 200,000 households - will now include four "subjective" questions:
1. How happy did you feel yesterday?
2. How anxious did you feel yesterday?
3. How satisfied are you with your life nowadays?
4. What extent do you feel the things you do in your life are worthwhile?
All I can say for certain is that I would be a bloody sight happier if Cameron took his questionnaire and inserted it deep into a place where the sun don't shine – at his own expense.
COMMENT THREAD
Glaciergate no more
They can spin it every which way, but even The Guardian does not dare hide the finding that the world's greatest snow-capped peaks, which run in a chain from the Himalayas to Tian Shan on the border of China and Kyrgyzstan, have lost no ice over the last decade.
The work comes from a survey of all the world's icecaps and glaciers, made possible by the use of satellite data. Overall. And from this, it has been found that the contribution of melting ice outside the two largest caps – Greenland and Antarctica – is much less than previously estimated. Furthermore, the lack of ice loss in the Himalayas and the other high peaks of Asia are responsible for most of the discrepancy.
Yet the claim that the Himalayan glaciers were about to disappear was at the heart of Glaciergate, and the "Voodoo Science" jibe by Rajendra Pachauri. But, as we know on this blog, we haven't needed a satellite survey to tell us that the glaciers were perfectly safe.
We know this already from the British government-funded "Sagarmatha survey", headed by two British scientists, Gwyn Rees and David Collins. Rees was to tell an interviewer that, "having heard alarming predictions of Himalayan glaciers disappearing within the next 40 years, he teamed up with eminent glaciologists "to develop new forecasting techniques which will give us a better understanding of how glaciers are likely to respond as the climate changes".
One of those "eminent glaciologists" was, of course, Dr Syed Hasnain – the man responsible for the original Glaciergate scam, and in June 2004 Rees and Collins reported that the threat, that all of the region's glaciers may soon disappear, "would seem unfounded". The catastrophic water shortages forecast by some experts were "unlikely to happen for many decades, if at all".
Nevertheless, we can now also rely on Bristol University glaciologist prof Jonathan Bamber. He says, "The very unexpected result was the negligible mass loss from high mountain Asia, which is not significantly different from zero", adding that these data are " … the most reliable estimate of global glacier mass balance that has been produced to date".
Bamber notes that 1.4 billion people depend on the rivers that flow from the Himalayas and Tibetan plateau, which was the reason why the scare had to be floated in the first place. Glaciers are to central and south-east Asia what polar bears are to Europeans, in totemic terms.
A bit of damage limitation follows, with Bamber telling us that the new data do not "mean that concerns about climate change are overblown in any way". Instead, he would have it that there is a much larger "uncertainty" in high mountain Asia than was thought. You bet!
Thus, all the warmists have now is Greenland and the little bit of Antarctica that is actually melting. With that, the scariest estimate they can come up with is that, through 2003 to 2010, melting ice raised sea levels worldwide by an average of 1.48 millimeters (0.06 inches) a year.
That way, it is going to a hundred years before we get to six inches, just supposing we are not in the grip of a little ice age by then. Whatever else though, Pachauri pulled off his little scam just in time. Now the money is in the bank, he can walk away from it and try our something else to supplement his income.
But when the histories come to be written, glaciergate will get a special place, as an illustration of how easy it is to convince the gullible that the sky is falling in.
COMMENT THREAD
Wednesday, February 08, 2012
Never tell the whole story
The British administration is to purchase for the RAF another Boeing C-17 strategic transport aircraft (pictured above), bringing the total to eight – two less than the Indian Air Force fleet.
This £200 million purchase is reported in The Independent, having been announced by no lesser a personage than The Boy himself at PMQs. Such grand issues of state, such as the purchase of one transport aircraft, can no longer, it seems, be left to the defence secretary.
The announcement came after a challenge over today's Defence Select Committee report which warned that Britain could struggle to mount an operation on the scale of the Libya mission in the future, such has been the scale of recent defence cuts.
Unchallenged, however, The Boy is allowed to propagandise freely, telling the Commons that, "Because the Ministry of Defence's finances are better run and better managed, and because we have found savings, we will be able to purchase an additional C-17 for the RAF". "This aircraft is becoming an absolutely brilliant workhorse for the RAF in terms of bringing men and material into a war zone like Afghanistan, but also evacuating civilians in times of need", he says.
What is not said, of course, is that the real reason for the purchase is to a desperate attempt to fill the huge gap left by the failure of the £2.7 billion Airbus A-400M programme, which was supposed to have delivered 25 of their shiny new military transports to the RAF by 2006, with an in-service date of 2007.
When the programme hit multiple snags – some of which have yet to be resolved – the delivery date was moved to 2011, and the RAF's ageing fleet of C-130Ks was given a refit at the cost of £15.3 million, in order to fill the gap.
However, still further problems with the A-400M mean that we will be lucky to see deliveries of the A-400M (now down to 22) by 2014, with an expected (if optimistic) in-service date by 2015. Meanwhile, wing fatigue have required four of the remaining 14-strong C-130K fleet to be retired last year, with the rest due to be scrapped this year.
Furthermore, some of the newer 24-strong C-130J fleet have been hammered so badly, from service in Afghanistan, that they are showing signs of premature ageing and will require wing replacement work, starting this year and taking an unspecified number of machines out of service.
All of this means that, as the National Audit Office reported last year, the RAF would be "unlikely to be able to sustain the current tactical capability". In less measured language, the RAF is now dangerously short of airlift capacity.
So bad is the situation that, this January, an announcement was sneaked out that the MoD was to buy two second-hand BAe 146s to supplement its air transport activities in Afghanistan – the possibility of which we reported in 2009, when 47 were available for purchase.
The addition of one C-17 still hardly scratches the surface, and is hardly a proper occasion for a triumphal announcement by a prime minister – affordable only because of the "savings" arising from the run-down of the transport fleet and the delay in buying the A-400Ms.
At the heart of this, though, is the political decision by the previous (John Major's) administration to take part in the European programme, and Blair's decision in May 2000 formally to order the machines. But never let it be said that we get the whole story from the MSM or the MoD. By their silence, a procurement disaster of the past becomes today's triumph.
COMMENT THREAD
Lessons unlearned
One of the things I particularly enjoyed about Overlord, Max Hasting's book about the 1944 Normandy landings, is the way he interweaves the narrative with short dissertations about the equipment used in the campaign, including analyses of the many shortcomings.
There, I though, was a man who understood (to a degree) the relationship between the fighting performance of armies, and the equipment with which the were provided – issues especially relevant in Normandy where the Allies had failed to produce a tank which could match German armour or deal with the much-feared 88mm flak/anti-tank gun.
But if the man had then (in 1984) the glimmerings of understanding, any lessons he learned during the writing of his book, he seems to have unlearned as old-age, pomposity and grandeur have overtaken intellect.
This is evident from his latest piece in The Daily Mail, where he deplores the encroachment in the Army of what he calls the "elf'n'safety and a busybody culture" which, he asserts, is making babies of us all.
Hastings's cri de coeur rests in turn on Gen Peter Wall, the current CGS, who last week "hit out" at the "zero-risk culture" which, he said, had "fuelled unrealistic demands that no British blood should be shed on battlefields".
Human rights lawyers, Wall asserted, were among those who had created an "expectation" that troops should not come to harm in war zones. The spotlight shone on the Armed Forces in Iraq and Afghanistan had exposed "a variety of awkward ethical, legal, human rights and equipment issues".
But, he added: "There will be an expectation in some circles in society that the sort of zero-risk culture that is understandably sought in many other walks of life ought to be achievable on the battlefield".
Nevertheless, he said, the public must be prepared for lives to be lost in future conflicts. Despite the equipment lessons learned in Afghanistan, the "operating risks" would be greater on a future mission where the UK was forced to put "boots on the ground" in an unknown theatre of war.
Picking up on that theme, Hastings tells us that Wall's dismay "is widely shared in the armed forces, and among senior veterans". Name dropping in the way that he so grandly does, he then tells us he heard Gen Michael Rose, who commanded the SAS in the Falklands, "deplore the new ethic created by coroners, human rights cases and media pressure, which he believes to be gravely damaging the Army as a fighting service".
Now, there are few people who will disagree with the general premise, that war is dangerous and soldiering entails risk. Further, it comes as no surprise that, when soldiers make a career out of going to strange, foreign places in order to kill people, there is always a chance that they are going to come back with bits missing, or in a body bag.
However, on the basis of what he is told by Army worthies, Hastings decides that we, the public, are expecting too much. Although the Army has had to fight its recent campaigns amid a deplorable shortage of helicopters, he says, we should ignore much of the claptrap about alleged equipment failures: our soldiers in Afghanistan are the best-equipped Army Britain has ever put into the field.
If their kit is not perfect, he informs us, it is because nothing ever is. If commanders sometimes make mistakes which cost lives, and earn magisterial rebukes from ignorant coroners, this is because young men do make mistakes, and in war the price is paid in blood.
And that is the word from Hastings. If we are to take him at face value, concerns about the Snatch Land Rover, the pathetically inadequate Vector, and the stupidity of the Jackal, are misplaced. Pointing out their deficiencies is "claptrap", and commanders (many of whom – and especially those making decisions on equipment - are not that young) are entitled to make mistakes.
The tragedy of this mindset – and that it clearly is – is that it neglects two important issues.
Firstly, it fails to allow for that fact that people are reasonably tolerant of military casualties, although that tolerance reduces in what might be termed an "unpopular" war. What primarily they are concerned with is what are perceived to be unnecessary casualties, caused by avoidable errors, or inadequacies in equipment.
Secondly, it neglects the very essence of counter-insurgency warfare, where the objective is not the capture of territory but the "hearts and minds" of the indigenous population in the area of operations. In thus type of battle, though, the enemy is also fighting for the same objective, but that includes the "hearts and minds" of the home population, from which their opposing troops are drawn.
Thus do insurgents, as a matter of course, target soldiers specifically to cause casualties, the purpose not to achieve any direct military objective but to influence public opinion and reduce support for the war. As with Viet Nam, they know full well that wars are won on the home front, when "permission" to fight is withdrawn and the war becomes politically unsustainable.
In such circumstances, it is incumbent on military commanders to make "force protection" a major theatre priority. If soldiers' lives are the currency of war, where every death is a victory for the enemy, keeping deaths to an unavoidable minimum is a necessary military objective.
Above that though, no commander can afford the luxury or taking casualties that are perceived to be preventable – and that really is the issue. No one, surely, can argue that the deployment of inadequate vehicles to Iraq and then Afghanistan was anything other than a mistake, and that lives were lost unnecessarily.
There is, however, a third and perhaps even more important element. In the context of both Iraq and Afghanistan, enemy tactics involved the extensive use of IEDs. The effect of this on the counter-insurgency forces is to reduce tactical mobility, and to force local commanders to limit the scale of operations to keep casualties to within "acceptable" bounds.
In this context, force protection is not an optional extra, an add-on luxury to be supplied once other operational needs have been satisfied. It is a sine qua non of modern, discretionary operations.
Behind all this, though, one sees a deeper, more sinister issue. With a number of human rights cases pending, and an appeal due in the Supreme Court over the Snatch Land Rover, it seems that the Army and its apologists are indulging in high-level back covering, to conceal or mitigate egregious failures in the supply of equipment.
There, I have no truck with this "lessons learned" culture, which seems to be the military (and official) response to the supposed "elf'n'safety and busybody culture". Any number of mistakes are permissible, it seems, as long as the lessons are duly learned, and the mistakes are not repeated … until the next time, when lessons have to be learned all over again.
By any measure, sending Snatch Land Rovers into Iraq was a bad decision. Keeping them there, and taking so long to provide mine/ambush protected vehicles, was criminal folly. Deploying both the Snatch and its replacement, the Vector, to Afghanistan, was the height of stupidity.
Demanding that troops are better equipped to deal with predictable threats, before they go into theatre is not "claptrap". Nor is demanding emerging threats to be quickly recognised, with countermeasures rapidly supplied, unreasonable. It is common and military sense.
Hastings does us and the military no favours by taking his current line. He should know from his previous writings how important it is to supply the correct equipment to our armed forces. He is going backwards, a case here of lessons unlearned.
In the foreword to Overlord, he cited Basil Liddel Hart, who had suggested that the Allies had been strangely reluctant to reflect upon their own superiority in Normandy and draw some appropriate conclusions about their own performance. "There has been too much glorification of the campaign and too little objective investigation".
When it came to the lamentable performance of British armour, Hastings observed that "the British Authorities were at pains to stifle any public debate about the shortcomings of their tanks, although these were well known throughout the British Army".
In the House of Commons, the government was constantly challenged by Labour MP Richard Stokes, only to have his entirely justified complaints dismissed with the assurance that "public discussion of this issue was not in the public interest". Field Marshall Montgomery himself quashed a succession of complaints and open expressions of concern, writing at the time of such reports being "likely to cause a lowering of morale and lack of confidence among the troops".
Hastings then reports that, "The government lied systematically, until the very end of the war, about the Allies' tragic failure to produce tanks capable of matching those of the Germans".
It seems to me that Hastings needs to re-read his own book.
COMMENT THREAD
Another "cast iron" bites the dust
There was outrage in the House yesterday when Theresa May was called to make a statement on the release of Abu Qatada.
Mrs May told MPs that Abu Qatada posed a "serious" risk to Britain's national security - and successive governments, since 2001, had tried to deport him. The House of Lords had agreed he could be deported - but despite that, the European Court of Human Rights had ruled against his deportation, on the grounds it would violate his right to a fair trial.
So, whatever happened to The Boy's promise to repeal the Human Rights Act? This is another of those "cast iron" promises that seem to be going nowhere very fast. But it looked so good at the time …
Is it any wonder that politicians are no longer trusted, and regarded with such contempt?
COMMENT THREAD
Tuesday, February 07, 2012
The terrible truth
As an antidote to Sandy Gall, in the current edition of The Week, we have Crispin Black on "The terrible truth about our wasted sacrifice in Afghanistan". His piece makes for sombre reading. Here are some excerpts:
Not only did we lose in the province for which we were responsible, Helmand. We lost because our generals have no idea how to deploy our troops to best effect.Then he concludes:
One of the reasons the top brass were so keen to get involved in Afghanistan was to restore the army's reputation after its defeat in Iraq at the hands of Shia militiamen in Basra. They reckoned they could handle things in Afghanistan.
Senior British commanders in Afghanistan in 2006, backed by their bosses in London … deliberately and recklessly disregarded an eternal military axiom: never split your forces …
And then the shooting war which we had just about mastered changed. The dastardly Taliban switched tactics and started to blow up our soldiers on patrol with roadside bombs or Improvised Explosive Devices, in the jargon.
An army which had spent a generation facing just such threats in Northern Ireland was taken by surprise without the bomb disposal equipment or protective vehicles to cope. Soldiers on resupply runs in Belfast in the 1980s travelled in vehicles with heavier armour than their counterparts on the frontline in Afghanistan 20 years later.
There is one overarching truth about the contemporary British Army that they and the rest of us are reluctant to face up to. Yes, soldiers in today's army are more experienced than their predecessors. They are better trained and equipped and more decorated. We have all been inspired by their example and their fortitude in adversity.And that is why get the likes of Dannatt and Richards creating a veritable blizzard of diversionary pieces – anything to throw the MSM off the scent, and salvage their reputations.
But in the end they have failed in their only purpose - they don't win their wars.
COMMENT: "WORSE THAN I THOUGHT" THREAD
Man overboard?
It is getting to the point that when items about Greece (and there are many) come up, one tends to groan inwardly and hurriedly move on. Such was the reaction this morning when I saw this (above). On reflection though, one can see in it a veiled threat, the denial revealing the intent, with the "colleagues" preparing to throw Greece overboard.
Maybe though, if it was a threat, it might be working. The WSJ certainly thinks so, suggesting that prime minister Lucas Papdemos has gone back to the drawing board "amid efforts to agree to a new debt deal and avoid Greece defaulting on its debts next month".
"But", says the piece's author, Steven Russolillo, "the situation in Greece is messy", adding, "That's putting it politely". And when he offers the latest from Athens, which has government officials putting together a detailed final document, he tells us: "We'll believe it when we see it".
With Greece in "scramble mode", negotiating with the troika — European Commission, IMF and ECB — for a new loan programme, it would appear that something must happen by 20 March when a large bond payment is due. Then, €14.4 billion in readies will be needed.
"Don't hold your breath", cautions Russolillo. Famed investor Dennis Gartman, who publishes an eponymous investment newsletter, sifts through the chatter and is confused, to say the least. "We've lost count of which deadline is which; which 'drop dead' date is truly a 'drop dead date' and which are simply dates of confusion", he says in his newsletter.
And that is the only thing that is really comforting to come out of this situation – to find that the "experts" are as confused as we are. This is not Greek but Irish politics, home of the famous aphorism, "if you think you understand, you haven't been listening".
Perhaps then the word from the commission really wasn't a threat. Maybe they have actually lost patience and are really planning to ditch Greece. We might know more after a meeting of Greek leaders tonight, against a background of yet another general strike.
As the man said, though, don't hold your breath.
COMMENT THREAD
Was this a factor?
I missed this at the time, although it is quite recent (and subsequently denied). One wonders, though, if it was a factor in the Indian decision to give "preferred bidder" status to Dassault and its Rafale. After all, what is good for the Royal Navy (and possibly even the RAF) has to be good enough for the Indian Air Force.
By now though, it takes little to imagine the storm of protest that would ensure if the British government went to the Kermits for their hardware. I should think that, if the F-35 does "bomb", the F-18 now has a better chance.
COMMENT THREAD
Worse than I thought
At the end of January, I wrote a review of a review of Sandy Gall's book on Afghanistan, War against the Taliban, a book which purports to tell you "Why it all went wrong in Afghanistan".
I complained at the time that we seemed to be in "he says – she says" territory, where the current idea of writing history is to gather a collection of interviews of leading players and stitch them together to make a narrative.
Having now obtained the book, and read part of it, it strikes me that the volume is even worse than I at first thought. Chapter 15, which purports to tell us of the background to the role of Brown and Blair in the early stages of the war, is a case in point – and only one.
Consulting the references, after having read the chapter, one finds that the narrative is not so much "he says, she says", as "he says". Almost the entire chapter is based on Gen. Dannatt's book, Leading from the front, with 19 separate references. The bulk of the rest is his testimony to the Chilcot inquiry and a few press articles, followed by just over two pages largely based on an interview with Gen Jackson.
Thus, a highly contentious and important part of our history relies primarily, in Sandy Gall's hands, on the testimony of one witness, with a few comments from another. There is not attempt whatsoever to triangulate, to seek the views of other witnesses, or to refer to documentation.
Further, it is not as if either of his witnesses could be considered impartial, or even reliable. And even if they were, the reliance on so few sources can hardly be regarded as a sound approach to writing history. However, what Dannatt and Jackson do have, as does Sandy Gall, is prestige. That, it seems, allows you to get away with writing crap – and get glowing reviews in the Failygraph for it.
I have a feeling I shall return to this theme.
COMMENT THREAD
I complained at the time that we seemed to be in "he says – she says" territory, where the current idea of writing history is to gather a collection of interviews of leading players and stitch them together to make a narrative.
Having now obtained the book, and read part of it, it strikes me that the volume is even worse than I at first thought. Chapter 15, which purports to tell us of the background to the role of Brown and Blair in the early stages of the war, is a case in point – and only one.
Consulting the references, after having read the chapter, one finds that the narrative is not so much "he says, she says", as "he says". Almost the entire chapter is based on Gen. Dannatt's book, Leading from the front, with 19 separate references. The bulk of the rest is his testimony to the Chilcot inquiry and a few press articles, followed by just over two pages largely based on an interview with Gen Jackson.
Thus, a highly contentious and important part of our history relies primarily, in Sandy Gall's hands, on the testimony of one witness, with a few comments from another. There is not attempt whatsoever to triangulate, to seek the views of other witnesses, or to refer to documentation.
Further, it is not as if either of his witnesses could be considered impartial, or even reliable. And even if they were, the reliance on so few sources can hardly be regarded as a sound approach to writing history. However, what Dannatt and Jackson do have, as does Sandy Gall, is prestige. That, it seems, allows you to get away with writing crap – and get glowing reviews in the Failygraph for it.
I have a feeling I shall return to this theme.
COMMENT THREAD
And your conclusion is?
"Every year used to be like this, but people forget how fierce winters in the east can be", says Nick Thorpe of the BBC. But they just don't get it. Never once does it dawn on them that the warming is over. We are back to normal.
COMMENT THREAD
Another one down
I can't see many tears being shed over this, nor anything in it to keep the (low energy) lights burning in Whitehall. But we should nevertheless record the collapse of Romania's government, "the latest debt-stricken government in Europe to fall in the face of raising public anger over biting cuts".
Actually, it is a lot more complicated than that, but there are few people outside Romania who know enough – or even care enough – to offer a sensible analysis in the British MSM. However, the news of yet another downfall is covered in the likes of Daily Mail and The Guardian, so the event is not being ignored.
Meanwhile, as the situation develops there, not a million miles away there are no developments – when there should be. We write, of course, of Greece where political leaders have again delayed a decision on a new bailout package. Closer and closer thus comes the prospect of a disorderly default, with the contagion spreading to some or all of the other PIIGS.
An EU commission spokesman diplomatically says that Greece is already past the deadline for finalising talks on a second financing package and "needs to move urgently". Merkel, on the other hand, seems to have lost patience, but is saying the same thing, that Greece must "make up its mind quickly" on accepting the painful terms for a new EU/IMF bailout.
The Financial Times, however, has a report of another messy
COMMENT THREAD
Monday, February 06, 2012
Political suicide
Just in case you thought you still (or ever) lived in a democracy, The Boy has spoken. Despite the Indians not wanting the money and despite the people of this country not wanting to give it away, "Downing Street" has decided that we go on borrowing money we can't afford to repay in order to finance this ludicrous aid programme.
The Boy might think he has the power, and for the time being he has. But, as we pointed out in our earlier piece, to continue with this policy lies in the realms of stupidity. In fact, it is beyond stupidity. The Boy will pay for it dearly. This is political suicide.
COMMENT "REALMS OF STUPIDITY" THREAD
It's quacking cold
Scene at the local park today - bright, sunny, and cold. But not this bad. Most of the snow has gone, the roads are clear and even the pavements are snowless. This is not a new ice age (yet).
COMMENT THREAD
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