Saturday, November 08, 2008

A vicarious thrill

"Obama to 'act swiftly' to resolve economic crisis", blare the headlines, reporting on the intentions of the president elect of another country who is not even in power for another 70-odd days.

On the other hand, who has noticed that, yesterday, our own government met – in Brussels – to decide on its "common position" on reforming the global financial system? All 27 member state leaders were there – which includes our beloved premier – and, according to temporary boss-man Nicolas Sarkozy, "There is a pretty detailed common position from Europe … We will be defending a common position, a vision … for restructuring our financial system."

"Defending" from what? one might ask. The answer is from the United States and other global players, at a meeting of the world's leading economic powers in Washington on 15 November – when president Bush will be in the chair.

What that common position is, I have no idea – but it is the British position. Our prime minister has agreed to it. The funny thing is that you can read all about Barack Obama's plans for the United States in the British media today. If you want to read something of what our government did – but not very much – forget the British press. Nowhere can I find reference to the meeting in today's editions.

You can try Voice of America or, if you want a fuller account, go to Deutsche Welle.

The even funnier thing is that, even though this is happening under our very eyes, no one, apart for the occasional nerd and EU Referendum readers, actually gives a damn. Most actually resent being told. Having lost control over our own government, the bulk of the population is happier watching the theatre of a proxy government rather than getting to grips with the reality of our own powerlessness.

Our experience of democracy has become vicarious - to be enjoyed through others and never, any longer, directly.

And the picture? Representatives of our government take time off from deciding our financial policy to unveil a plaque commemorating the 120th birthday of Jean Monnet – the man who set in train the destruction of our democracy. It is perhaps fitting that the bulk of the people in this country haven't heard of him, and would think you were talking about an artist if you mentioned his name.

So nobody gives a damn about his 120th birthday either. At least we have that in common.

COMMENT THREAD

Friday, November 07, 2008

More chaos and confusion

The news today that oil giant BP has dropped plans to build wind farms and other renewable energy projects in Britain should come as a major wake-up call to our guardians in Whitehall – but it won’t.

The company has shelved ideas of building a UK onshore wind farm at the Isle of Grain in Kent and will not bid for any offshore licences, instead focusing on renewables spending on the United States.

With some projects already in trouble, finding difficulty in attracting investors, the withdrawal of a major player like BP drives the government's renewable energy policy further into the land of fantasy, underlining the fact that we are now relying for our future energy supplies on something which is not only unachievable, but demonstrably so.

The fantasy economics of offshore wind power are well illustrated by news from another front, with RWE agreeing to buy 50 percent of the world's biggest planned offshore wind park from Scottish & Southern UK.

This is the development at Greater Gabbard, in the North Sea off the east coast. It is costed at £1.3 billion, yet will only have an installed capacity of about 500 megawatts and a deliverable capacity of about a third of that. Thus, with a price tag about the same as a modern nuclear plant, it will produce only about an eighth of the power. Even with the renewables obligation subsidy, this does not make sense.

To add to the government's discomfort, BP has also decided to pull out of carbon capture, withdrawing from the UK's competition to set up the world's first commercial-scale plant. The company had been one of four groups of companies shortlisted for the competition, along with consortia led by E.ON, Peel Energy and ScottishPower.

With the government pinning its hopes on "clean coal" as one of its energy policy planks, this must reduce significantly any chances of getting carbon capture into play, further increasing our reliance on gas generation. And here also the news is not good. We are told that much needed expansion of gas storage facilities needed to help the UK weather the vagaries of global energy markets have received a blow with the announcement that two projects have suffered serious setbacks.

One is by Portland Gas, under construction in Dorset. This had been expected to open in the second half of 2011, but is being held up by problems securing financing. The facility was now unlikely to open before March 2012.

Andrew Hindle, the Portland Gas chief executive, said: "The global credit crunch has all but closed off the likelihood of achieving [the 2011] target for the time being and this factor, combined with cutbacks in longer-term spend by industry participants in the sector, has meant that halting the current joint venture funding process is in the best interests of all shareholders."

Reflecting the broader turmoil in the energy market, we also hear of the collapse two small suppliers to the business market, Electricity4Business and BizzEnergy – both of which have gone into administration. This reflects the unstable wholesale prices and the increased cost of credit.

And, to add even more to the joy, The Australian notes that the wonderful EU's emission trading scheme is in trouble – the price of "carbon" has collapsed.

This, says the paper, is making a mockery of Europe's stumbling attempts to lead the world with a market-based carbon strategy. It is causing irritation and frustration to the armies of advisers and investors who seek to cajole utilities into big investments in carbon reduction.

James Cameron, the director of Climate Change Capital, a financial adviser and fund manager, said: "The whole purpose of the ETS is to take carbon out. It's not there to benefit funds or to support trading."

On that, you could have fooled us, as the whole scheme has degenerated into a money-making scam.

But then, this simply reinforces the sense of confusion and disarray which seems to pervade the very fabric of government and commerce. And, as always, it will be us that pays, not only in increased costs but also in the very real risk of the lights going out.

COMMENT THREAD

The last laugh?

Forget the US election … this 'ere is the reely important stuff – the Glenrothes by-election. That's up in Scotland somewhere and, according to The Daily Telegraph, what should have been a shoe-in for the Scottish National Party has become a humiliating defeat. Labour has held the seat with an estimated (at the time of writing) majority of between 3,000 and 5,000.

Although this is somewhat less than its general election majority of 10,664, it represents a remarkable turn-round in the political fortunes of Gordon Brown, of whom, only a few months ago, the political obituaries were being written.

Considering the acres of garbage being written about him, the prospects of a leadership contest and all that, we can feel pretty smug about our unwavering prediction that Brown would see this term through to the next general election in 2010. And, given the lacklustre performance of the Conservatives, we would not entirely rule out him coming back for more.

The hilarious thing about this election is that, for all the hubris of Alex Salmond, the SNP leader having spent the previous 48 hours confidently predicting victory, on the day the voters did not play ball. This left SNP campaign managers to blame heavy rain in the evening for keeping their supporters indoors. Fair weather friends, indeed, one might say.

Anyhow, a week is a long time in politics – as they keep saying – and this result will be quickly forgotten, but the signals are unmistakable. The Tories have got a fight on their hands and – dare we say it – they are going to have to up their game to be assured of victory.

COMMENT THREAD

Thursday, November 06, 2008

An exercise in applied futility

Farmers representatives were out in force yesterday, lobbying their MPs about the new pesticide legislation – currently going through the EU parliament.

Reported by The Daily Telegraph, farmers are claiming that this law - which aims to reduce the use of pesticides by 85 per cent by 2013 - could double food prices.

Needless to say, the newspaper is late off the mark, with the BBC having covered it on 17 May of this year, although we covered it even earlier, on 23 April.

Covering the BBC effort, we noted how this damaging piece of legislation had become "detached from the political process", noting that:

…because this is EU legislation, the BBC report, itself, was offered in a rather detached way – almost an account of a distant event that had no real relevance to the views. Had the pesticide directive been British government initiative, with an Act of Parliament in progress, there would no doubt have been a government statement and views offered from opposition MPs – engendering some sense of political controversy and immediacy.
As it was yesterday, that detachment was reinforced as the MPs had to admit to their visitors that there was nothing whatsoever they could do about the law, until it reached Westminster, by which time it would be too late. The farmers’ representatives were wasting their time.

However, it should be remembered that this law does not just affect the UK – or even just the EU member states. the Daily Mail points to the wider catastrophe – albeit through a UK filter – telling us that, "Imported soft fruit and flowers could disappear from Europe after EU decision to ban pesticides on health grounds."

The effect of the law will be to prevent any third country exporting to EU member states also from using any of the newly banned pesticides, but what is not picked up is the effect it will have on their domestic production – which will be dire. As we pointed out in our first piece, up to 42 percent of the global harvest is lost to pests and plant disease, with an additional 10 percent post-harvest loss, bringing the total to 52 percent – more than half the world's food supply.

Yet, heedless of the devastation they will bring, the EU parliament's environment committee voted by 39 votes to 20 to "clamp down on a whole range of pesticides, herbicides and fungicides".

Cheerleader of the process was that great self-publicist and self-centred little madam Caroline Lucas, MEP extraordinaire and leader of the Green party. Comfortably padded with her inflation-proof MEP salary, expense account and non-contributory pension, she insisted that "human health must be given better protection".

And, with an almost staggering insouciance, she had the utter gall to declare: "With today's vote, MEPs have rejected industry scaremongering, and sent a clear message that they want to see a reduction in the use of dangerous pesticides."

What made it so staggering was her assertion that: "A record level of pesticides are being found in food items sold in the EU, with almost half of all fruit, vegetables and cereals containing pesticide residues." This, one could say – kindly – really is scaremongering, as is clearly evidenced by EU studies.

These demonstrate that levels exceeding the statutory maximum residue levels (MRLs) were found most often in peppers (at six percent), grapes (at five percent), cucumber (at three percent ) and aubergines (also at three percent). But then when it comes to driving the world into poverty and starvation, what does a little thing like the truth means to Caroline Lucas? She's a greenie after all.

The pity of it all is that any farmers would be wasting their time talking to her, as much as they were talking to their MPs. Seeking rational, sensible legislation these days is an exercise in applied futility.

COMMENT THREAD

An exercise in applied insanity

Some of us probably remember jeering at the greenie Germans who got the recycling bug and ended up renting huge warehouses to store all the unwanted material they had collected.

Well, it is now happening here, with The Times reporting that "thousands of tons of rubbish collected from household recycling bins may have to be stored in warehouses and former military bases to save them from being dumped after a collapse in prices."

Collection companies and councils, we are told, are running out of space to store paper, plastic bottles and steel cans because prices are so low that the materials cannot be shifted. Collections of mixed plastics, mixed paper and steel reached record levels in the summer but the "bottom fell out of the market" and they are now worthless.

This is actually only half the story and the clue as to what is really happening is given in the next bit of the story, where The Times notes that the plunge in prices was caused by "a sudden fall in demand for recycled materials, especially from China, as manufacturers reduced their output in line with the global economic downturn."

What we all know is that the bulk of the so-called "recycled" material has been loaded on slow boats to China, where it has been "reprocessed" under appalling conditions, recorded many times. But as long as local authorities could get the waste off their books, honour was satisfied and quotas were deemed filled.

Now, with the Chinese economy going into freefall and manufacturers going bankrupt in droves, cheap Chinese goods are no longer pouring into the UK, so there are no empty ships to take our rubbish as ballast for the return journey.

So it is that "recyclers" are urgently asking the Environment Agency and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs to change draconian regulations on the storage of recycled waste so we can store the unwanted waste – stuff that not even the Chinese want any more.

But, in a classic example of "disconnect", Jane Kennedy, waste and recycling minister, is congratulating local authorities in England for reaching a 34.5 percent recycling rate, entirely heedless of the fact that their expensive separate collection systems are merely creating a massive storage problem, loading still further expense onto hard-pressed council tax payers.

Still though, the madness goes on, with councils and council tax payers facing fines of up to £3 billion if they do not "reduce the amount of waste thrown into landfill," instead having to pay for it to be stored on disused airfields until – some day when these too are full, someone will undoubtedly make the brave decision that the waste should be landfilled.

If there is a better example of the insanity both of the greenie agenda and of modern government, it would be very hard to find. It really does take a special kind of genius to screw up our waste management system so comprehensively.

COMMENT THREAD

I did warn you!


Last month, I gave notice that you were going to get a lot of "weather" from this blog this winter - you got a taste of it last Sunday.

But even our wildest expectations are beginning to be outdone as we see a report from Reno of an early-season storm dropped up to 15 inches of snow in the Sierra, bogging down traffic on mountain highways but hastening the state of the ski season.

The Boreal resort atop Donner Summit reported 12 to 15 inches of snow from the storm, and said it plans Thursday to become the first Tahoe resort to open for the season. Alpine Meadows resort just north of Lake Tahoe on Tuesday reported 10 to 14 inches of new snow, and said it hopes to open slopes on 26 November.

"Winter has made an entrance," said David Thatcher, the resort's snowmaking manager. "This weather system has not only provided the cold temperatures needed to begin making snow, it has given us a head start with natural snowfall as well."

As most Tahoe resorts traditionally open around Thanksgiving – the fourth Thursday of November – winter has indeed made an entrance, rather early.

Further south, in Denver, a storm dropped up to 6 inches of snow in the Colorado high country, and more is on the way. Much of western Colorado was under a winter storm warning on Wednesday. The National Weather Service says the snowfall could reach 16 inches.

This also affected the town of Aspen which had Highway 82 over Independence Pass near Aspen closed during a storm on Tuesday night, while icy conditions on the highway in Snowmass Canyon wreaked havoc with the Wednesday morning commute.

Roughly four inches of wet snow fell in downtown Aspen Tuesday night, coating fences and cars during Wednesday morning (picture below).

Even voting in the US election was affected with the mayor of Park City Utah worried that the first persistent snowfall of the season could deter voters. Presumably, they needed time to reflect on Obama's global warming strategy.


But, if the onset of snow has been well signalled in North America, on the other side of the world, in New Zealand, winter has refused to go out like a lamb.

Ferocious snow storms have hit the Southland cycle race, on the fourth stage from Invercargill to Tuatapere, on the tip of South Island (pictured top). The weather forced the shortening of the stage, with race chief commissaire Russell Miller, of Australia, declaring that "The conditions were atrocious, some of the worst I have ever seen in my 45 years as a rider and as a cycling official."

Rather more than just an inconvenience were the conditions in the western Chinese province of Yunnan, where heavy rains and snow have killed 40, with as many missing.

The snow has been affecting northwest Yunnan. Heavy storms blanketed major roads with 20 inches of snow and cut off traffic in the Diqing region. This follows what is described as "the worst snowstorm in history" which devastated Lhunze county in the northeast Tibet autonomous region between 26-28 October. Residents are now preparing for new snowfall, with forecast scattered snowfall between 2 and 5 inches.

Closer to home, The Times is reporting: "No shortage of snow for early season skiers", noting that webcams of the ski resorts across Europe are showing considerable falls of snow in many of them, including Val d'Isère in the French Alps and the higher Austrian resorts. That rather confounds the Cassandras who were in full flow, last May.

And, bang on our doorstep – in a possible foretaste of things to come – the agricultural research centre at Rothamsted in Harpenden, England, reported that some of its crop experiments had been badly hit by October's snowfall.

The cutting of hay on the long-term classical experiment Park Grass at Rothamsted was interrupted - the first time this is believed to have happened, while the early snow also caused considerable damage to the Rothamsted biomass crops with eight foot tall miscanthus being completely bent over and buried under the snow. Fourteen ground frosts were recorded during the month.

However, all this is of nothing to the climate change industry. Researchers at York University Washington have decided that climate change may be about to affect the lives of rare species such as the giant panda, because of fears that global warming is likely to result in substantial re-distribution of plants and animals.

The researchers focused on the effect of climate change on the bamboo, which is the giant panda's principal food, discovering that while some types of bamboo reduced in range due to global warming, others actually increased. The findings, we are told, will provide important information to help to safeguard the endangered animals' future.

And, while the boom and bust cycle in the financial world has been very much restored, with the strong emphasis on "bust", climate change, it seems, is suppressing the boom and bust cycle of population change in lemmings.

Nils Christian Stenseth, an evolutionary ecologist at the University of Oslo in Norway, is thus complaining that their growth cycle has been interrupted by changes in the snowpack imposed by climate change, with the famed population spikes no longer occurring. At one site in south-central Norway, there has been no significant population growth since 1994.

Never mind. There are plenty of human lemmings ready to take their place.

COMMENT THREAD

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Well, what now?

This is November 5, there are fireworks outside and the day is appropriate for thinking about blowing up politicians. Our politicians, nobody else's. When I saw and heard this morning the joyful whoops of our own Tories because an extreme left-wing socialist (so far as we know but more anon) has been elected in the United States I announced that I was on a mission to destroy that party. A friend asked me whether they needed my help. Possibly not, but I am happy to supply it.

Since then I have calmed down a bit, noted that the final results in America are not quite as bad as we had feared (I am talking about Congress now) and I can now start thinking more or less rationally. (OK, stop sniggering at the back.)

The rest, a call for battle, so without any distracting illustrations, is on EUReferendum 2.

COMMENT THREAD

One is not amused

The Queen – or so The Daily Telegraph tells us - has demanded to know why no one saw the financial crisis coming.

During a briefing by academics at the London School of Economics on the turmoil on the international markets she asked: "Why did nobody notice it?"

Professor Luis Garicano, director of research at the London School of Economics' management department, had explained the origins and effects of the credit crisis when she opened the £71 million New Academic Building.

Prof Garicano later said: "She was asking me if these things were so large how come everyone missed it." He told the Queen: "At every stage, someone was relying on somebody else and everyone thought they were doing the right thing."

And so did we have the makings of a Right Royal ****-**, for which absolutely no one is prepared to take responsibility - while the guilty men get bonuses.

COMMENT THREAD

Down the black hole


It is inevitable that, on the day following the American election, the political focus should be across the Atlantic. Like it or not, history has been made – the outcome of which is far from certain, and more than a little bit disturbing.

Nevertheless, life goes on, including the pond life in Westminster where the prattling classes gather for their weekly dose of theatre in the House of Commons, entertaining the masses for a half hour in what used to be called Prime Ministers Questions (PMQs).

Amid the high profile questions on the economy, however, it was a racing certainty that there would be a question to the prime minister on defence, with "Snatch" Land Rovers very much in the news. Not only had the lead story in The Daily Telegraph been devoted to the issue (which we discuss in detail on Defence of the Realm), but this was also the main topic of Monday's defence questions.

Now, given that this is very much a topical and important issue – having previously been the subject of acres of media comment – there was a possibility that the Great Leader might have raised it. The significance of this would have been that, in David Cameron tackling the topic, he would have sent a signal as to where Defence stands in the Conservative priorities.

Tactically, there was another reason why it would have been advantageous had Cameron taken this on board. Unlike the even lower pond life, the Great Leader gets the opportunity of coming back with supplementary questions – a privilege not afforded to lesser mortals. And given that the prepared response from the prime minister is always anodyne and formulaic, the real damage – if any - is always done on the riposte.

But, despite everything, this was not to be. The question was left to the B-team, in the persona of the shadow defence minister, Gerald Howarth (above). His exact question is detailed here (with the response), exactly the formulaic response we would expect. There could have been no other. And that was that – there was not even a hint of the Tories "hunting as a pack". The question was posed, the answer plopped out and the moment was over. It deserved better treatement.

What was quite extraordinary, however, was the response of the Conservative blog, Tory Diary, which religiously live-blogs PMQs every week, offering a running commentary and then hosting a wide-ranging post mortem in its comments section.

Howarth's question, however, came down the batting order and while the blogging took in some of the input from the lower orders, the coverage ran only 12.22 pm, when Bernard Jenkin asked a question on banks passing on rate cuts to "consumers". The blog then abruptly lost interest and Howarth's question – and the response – went unrecorded.

Small signs maybe, but when you take the general approach of the Conservatives into account, you have to conclude that defence – despite their historical interest in the subject – does not rank very highly at in the Party's priorities. Defence, like "Europe" and so many other subjects the Conservatives don't "do", has disappeared down a black hole.

COMMENT THREAD

The people have spoken


I cannot pretend to be pleased at the result of the presidential election but the people of America have spoken. The fact that they have allowed themselves to be bamboozled by the big media is not an argument against democracy. Look at what we have elected from time to time. At least, it matters in the United States and President Obama is answerable to the people.

For the moment I don't know the exact results across the country and can only hope for the best: not a complete and unstoppable Democrat sweep because it is never a good thing to have one party completely in power.

Nor can one predict what will happen. As one of the forum members has pointed out we, quite literally, know nothing about the new president, who is almost pathological in his secretiveness. What we do know, his political allies and some of his pronouncements, for instance, do not fill one with any great joy. The fact that so many of our Conservatives are rejoicing in very big government win in the United States just indicates where their sympathies lie.

But there is no need to despair. Even President Obama and his minions will not be able to destroy America. The Right in that country, unlike here, will regroup and fight back. He may well over-reach in the first two years and then the Republicans will sweep back into Congress in 2010. I still predict President Palin in 2012. Despite the misogyny of the Left and of much of big media, that barrier will fall as well.

Oh, and by the way, anti-Americanism will revive just as soon as President Obama has to make a decision. As somebody said to me yesterday: just wait till he asks the Europeans to provide more troops in Afghanistan.

COMMENT THREAD

They never give up

If ever there was a more unpopular policy – and demonstrably so, it is road charging. Over 1.8 million people signed a petition against it last year and there are no indications whatsoever that the mood has changed.

Like the "colleagues" and their accursed constitutional Nice treaty, however, this government won't take no for an answer, having just confirmed that it has commissioned technical trials on satellite-based road charging.

This comes via The Times which is reporting that hundreds of drivers are being recruited to take part in these trials, and also reminding us that this could result in charges of up to £1.30 a mile on the most congested roads.

The test runs, we are told, will start early next year in four locations and will involve fitting a satellite-tracking device to the vehicles of volunteers. An on-board unit will automatically deduct payments from a shadow account set up in the driver's name.

The fact of the trials has been confirmed by Paul Clark, the transport minister, which completely contradicts previous government statements suggesting that it had abandoned the idea of a national road-pricing scheme.

The idea of satellite charging last cropped up under Alistair Darling's watch – when in January 2006, we picked up an obscure report telling us that the Department for Transport had done a deal with "a major German firm", by name of T-systems. It had announced the foundation of a new subsidiary, Satellic Traffic Management GmbH.

This company had been set up specifically to develop satellite-based road toll charging technology and market it internationally and now, from The Times we learn that one of the trials four trials will involve up to 100 BT staff working at Martlesham, Suffolk. And BT is working with T-Systems, "the German company that collects tolls from lorries on 12,000 miles of autobahn."

At this time, trials will of course be based on the US GPS system – the "colleagues" not yet having got their own vanity Galileo project working yet. But, in the fullness of time, you can bet that the switch will be made and Galileo will take its rightful place at the heart of a European road charging system, with the UK a founding member.

Despite earlier, erroneous reports, there is nothing in writing on this – nothing you can pin down. It is all eminently deniable, right up to the point when the system goes into action.

Clark, however, is claiming that the trials are to be used to "help to create a pricing 'tool' that was most likely to be used first by local authorities." But the point about a satellite system, as opposed to localised "tag and beacon" systems, is that the infrastructure costs and management systems required only make sense if used as part of a national system. On the other hand, satellite charging is the only technology than can manage a national system.

Thus, we are seeing a continuation of the slow, insidious and fundamentally dishonest progression by government – in cahoots with the "colleagues" to introduce this system, as we always said it would.

Here, therefore, we have the consistent features of modern government – no matter how unpopular a policy, they will go ahead anyway and, no matter what the opposition, they will still go ahead. They never give up.

COMMENT THREAD

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

A narrowness of vision

Having railed, not infrequently, at the hyper-excitement of the groupuscules, as they prattle over the weekly "joust" that has turned Prime Ministers Questions into a bigger joke than it ever was, one is driven to muse on the narrowness of vision that currently defines modern politics.

For many of the so-called political commentators, it is the high-profile events like PMQs and the occasional debate in the House, where a "rebellion" or some such is threatened, that consumes almost their entire attention. Outside that foetidly narrow, almost claustrophobic horizon, nothing else seems to exist.

Continued on Defence of the Realm

COMMENT THREAD

Who regulates the regulators?

On his blog, To the moon, Mark Cole writes (about a year ago to the week) an interesting piece on the safety of the Airbus A380 – something we entertained also a long while ago.

What particularly stands out is that the Federal Aviation Authority was still issuing "special conditions" to its approval, raising serious safety issues, at the same time that it was actually issuing the formal safety certification. This led the Air Accident Current Newsletter to observe:

The prevalence of special conditions is an indicator of the degree to which formal certification standards have not kept pace with the march of technology.
What brings this bang up to date is the news that regulators who oversaw the banking system before the recent financial crisis will be paid bonuses this year "even though their boss admitted the watchdog had failed to foresee the risks ahead."

Yet, as we have seen with the banking crisis, there was – at the very least – a mismatch between the regulatory capabilities and the performance of the industry. As a result, the crisis stemmed, in part (and we would maintain, a very large part), from regulatory failure.

Therein lies an interesting and troublesome conundrum. Regulation is the monopoly of our masters who, by this means (and others) control the activities of the productive economy – and much else besides.

In the event of failure, fingers are quickly pointed at the visible players, and our masters invariably seize the opportunities to propose and then impose more regulation. But what if – as we constantly aver – the regulation, or its enforcement, is faulty? Who assesses that, and who then takes the necessary corrective action?

That is the really worrying bit. Our masters, being largely responsible for the regulation, are hardly going to admit their own faults. And, being our masters, who is going to demand that they do – especially when, in this country, we have a venal media and frivolous legislature?

This is sort of a variation of quis custodiet ipsos custodes? The modern version could be, "who regulates the regulators?" The question is timeless, but we seem even further from being able to answer it than we ever were.

COMMENT THREAD

What the next 48 hours will bring

On the whole I disagree with the boss, when he says that there is little to choose between the two presidential candidates. (He is not going to shoot me because he is in Bradford and I am in London and that's the way it's going to stay.) There are, in my opinion, bigger issues at stake than temporary climate policies or, even, pace such commentators as Dan Hannan, attitudes to the European Union.

On the second, it is clear, that Obama knows nothing about the subject and will say and do whatever the State Department tells him. As we all know, the State Department is historically pro-integration. McCain may have some track record of supporting European integration but it is not uppermost in his mind. Whoever wins, Europe is becoming less important in American foreign policy thinking. How that will impact on Anglo-American relations remains to be seen but much will depend on us as well as on the Americans.

On the first, I have to admit to being more concerned with such matters as a possible left-wing swerve in the United States that will reduce that country's economy to Jimmy Carter-type levels; or an attack on that greatest of all modern political documents, the American Constitution; or a possible destruction of the First Amendment. Obama, I am afraid, has displayed himself to be ignorant enough to do all these things. However, I do not think that even if The One is elected he and the somewhat corrupt political machine that he will take with him to the White House will destroy the United States. He may set it back quite a lot, though. And a set-back for America is a set-back for us all.

That is why, with all his faults, John McCain is the man I am rooting for.

The racism accusations worry me not at all. As has been said already the fact that a half-African politician could get to the top shows that racism is not as big an issue as some people on his side make out. The fact that his weaknesses have prevented him to do better in the election campaign despite the fantastic amount of money he has spent on it and despite the big media being almost entirely and very dishonestly on his side shows that people look at his qualities and not the colour of his skin, just as Martin Luther King dreamt it all those years ago.

Besides, anyone can play at isms. Given the treatment dealt out to Hillary Clinton, the dubious way in which her actual victory in the Primaries was discarded, and the vile accusations levelled at Sarah Palin, would it not be fair to say that all those who vote for Obama are guilty of sexism? About as fair as to say that all those who do not vote for him are guilty of racism. What's sauce for the goose ...

Having said all that, I need to add that whoever wins today and however long it will take to get the results, we can still salute the process. Let me remind all our readers: the people of the United States get to choose their government which, in all its various branches, at federal, state, country, city, district level, is responsible to those same people. When was the last time we could say that about this country?

Could this be the sort of envy for the reality of American democracy and American freedom as well as a sense of impotence as far as our own politics are concerned that fuels that insane anti-Americanism we have all witnessed in Britain?

Yesterday I went to the launch of the new web based campaign and political research group, America in the World. I was not all that impressed by David Cameron's speech but then you would expect that. In the circumstances, I don't think he should have made it quite so clear that he thought Obama would win and that he was basically on that side of the divide, not least because a good deal of European Obamamania is fuelled by the self-same anti-Americanism the new group is supposed to combat.

One of the other speeches, however, referred to a couple of recent polls. We know the one that gave the figure of 30 percent even in Britain of people who thought America was a greater danger to peace than Iran, China or North Korea. One would like to know where that 30 percent would prefer to work or spend holidays in? Still, attitudes like that are worrying, if not downright insane.

Apparently, America in the World conducted its own parallel polls, one about whom people would like to see as President of France and President of the United States. According to what was said, most people in various countries did not know or care who would be the first but almost everyone had an opinion on the second. This means nothing by itself - who becomes President of France is not really all that important even to the French, given the state of political affairs in Europe. America is, naturally, important to us all. And America must stay as a beacon of light for freedom and democracy. America will lead the Anglosphere, no matter what happens in the next 48 hours and even if there will be a temporary set-back.

UPDATE: I was going to put up pictures of the two presidential candidates but decided that the one above was more attractive. By the way, Governor Palin has been cleared of all ethics violation by independent counsel (and I stress the word independent). Amazing, isn't it?

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None of the above

Quite rightly, Anthony Watts over at Watts up with that is raising the alarm at Obama's "energy plan".

Although Watts notes that talking about the election "tends to suck all the oxygen right out of the room," this issue needs to be aired, he says. There's more to Obama than bankrupting coal power plants. He also intends to make energy prices "skyrocket".

The Wall Street Journal, however, argues that Obama and McCain are "broadly like-minded in their approach to energy and the environment."

Though important policy differences exist – the paper says - both support "energy independence" and a large-scale reorganization of the US economy in the name of climate change. The candidates, in other words, come in different shades of green.

This we did point out last August, although one particular difference is the approach to the Supreme Court judgement in the case of Massachusetts v EPA which ruled by a single vote that the EPA (effectively) must treat any greenhouse gases as "pollution", to be regulated under America's Clean Air Act.

This, we picked up here and here but, as Booker noted yesterday Obama intends to support the judgement and let the EPA rip.

Both courses – from either candidate – however, spell economic suicide for the USA, not least because both support "cap and trade", the "green scam" based on the EU's utterly mad emissions trading scheme.

Choice of candidates, therefore, is a choice between whether you want your suicide quick or slow – whether you jump off a bridge and be done with it, or feed yourself small doses of a slow-acting, cumulative poison, suffering a long, lingering death.

Obama or McCain – that is the choice. If it was up to me – which it isn't – it would be none of the above.

I don't really want to know any more. The television and radio stay resolutely off for the next 24 hours. Most particularly, I do not want to hear anything the BBC has to say about the US election. I will pick up the result from the internet when it's all over ... and weep.

COMMENT THREAD

Monday, November 03, 2008

Abandon ye hope …

"I have given up hoping that we will draw the right conclusions from this crisis …" writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard today in a long piece in The Daily Telegraph.

To draw the right conclusions, however, we need an inquiry, an objective shared – it seems – by the veteran Labour MP Harry Cohen . Recently, he asked the Chancellor of the Exchequer if he would commission an independent inquiry into the causes of the recent turbulence in the banking system.

The answer, from treasury secretary Ian Pearson, was a classic:

The on-going turbulence has affected financial markets around the world and requires an international response. In April this year the Financial Stability Forum provided the G7 with a detailed report on the causes of the crisis and a comprehensive set of recommendations for strengthening the financial system for the future. Going forwards, the FSF should continue to play a central role in shaping the international response to the crisis.
We can take that as a "no" then?

It is too big, too complicated, and no one wants to know. We are doomed by our own indifference.

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The travails of UKIP

Not exactly an impartial source, but my spies tell me it is "about right".

Hardly worth recording, so irrelevant has UKIP become, but it is interesting to note that the circulation of a public letter to the press is being planned. This, we are told, will bear the signatures of over 50 prominent UKIP members and will be highly critical of Nigel Farage, demanding his resignation as leader. It will even suggest a public debate, where Farage will be invited to answer charges over his leadership.

So embarrassed is Tim Congdon, the leading economist – who is cited by UKIP as its "economics advisor" - that he declines to mention the party, before the media, in relation to its stance on the EU’s regulation of the City.

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Thirty years on

Someone, somewhere, should be shot. The trouble is, where do you start?

COMMENT THREAD

The ugly face of politics


UPDATED (with adds): Today, at defence questions, on the basis of "information received", I had expected to see the unedifying sight of Mr Gerard Howarth leaping to his feet in the House of Commons, attempting (Speaker permitting) to wax indignant about the fate of the four British soldiers killed in a "Snatch" Land Rover last June.

Now that the media are again paying attention to the fact that these dangerously vulnerable vehicles are still in service, and there was a prospect of a favourable mention in the press, Mr Howarth, I suggested, would be milking the issue for every last drop of political advantage he could gain from it.

In the event, he was upstaged by his boss, the shadow secretary of state for defence, Liam Fox, who with sundry other members of the Tory tribe - including Patrick Mercer - sought to extract what they could from the perceived embarrassment of the government over this affair.

But, when it comes to doing anything about SAS soldiers having to deploy in these vehicles, Mr Fox and his Conservative friends are too late – far too late. In April and then again in May we picked up the news that the MoD was to buy 24 Australian-made Bushmaster Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles (pictured below).

The fact that this was not formally announced – in the context that the MoD usually extracts as much publicity from equipment purchases as it can – indicated only one thing. The Bushmasters were intended for the Special Forces. The government never announces equipment procured for them. The obvious and wholly sound inference is that these, in due course, are intended to replace the "Snatch" Land Rovers which had to be used with such disastrous consequences last June.

If there is a complaint – and there are in fact many – it is that the MoD, having recognised the need for protected vehicles, did not make arrangements to get some to theatre immediately, leaving troops to continue to using vehicles which they knew to be dangerously vulnerable.

That, if anything, is the substantive point to emerge from this affair - where the government could and should rightly be held to account - rather than over some imagined slight to an Army officer - but it is one which the Conservatives did not attempt to address. Nor, in truth, are they probably capable of so doing.

On this, one has to state that, when purchasing military vehicles, the time between the order and delivery can be fairly prolonged, especially if – as is so often the case - the buyers insist on "customising" the vehicles to their own specific requirements, adding all the "bells and whistles". But this was exactly the situation that the Dutch confronted in Afghanistan in 2006 when they realised that protected vehicles were needed for their troops.

It was then that they ordered 24 Bushmasters from Australia but, in view of the urgency of the situation, they did two things. Firstly, in the interim, they borrowed five Nyala (RG-31) protected vehicles from the Canadians, to cover them for their more hazardous patrols. Secondly, they negotiated to draw Bushmasters from existing Australian Army stocks rather than wait for a new-build, the Australian inventory then being topped-up when the manufacturers had built what amounted to replacement vehicles.

By this means the Dutch had Bushmasters in place by October 2006. By similar means, the British Army could have had protected vehicles in place by June, to cover the expedition that ended in tragedy. That these vehicles were not in place is a genuine cause for concern, the reasons for which should be established.

This is especially the case as, from the report of the incident - where it appears the Land Rover was hit by two stacked mines - the attack would have been eminently survivable, that weight of explosive being well within the capacity of protected vehicles to withstand. By any account that we know, these deaths were needless - good lives of good men and one woman horribly wasted.

As it stands, had someone at high level in the chain of command had the balls - and the initiative - and sought the political support, the moment that order for the Bushmasters had been signed, actions could have been taken which could have culminated, within days, of those vehicles being put on a freight aircraft to Afghanistan.

And, I bet, there are any number of people prepared to tell me that there were a hundred reasons why this could not have been done. But there was one reason - which trumps them all - why it could have been done: those vehicles were needed in theatre, without which people were going to die - as indeed they did.

But - as one has come to expect from this dire crew which calls itself the Conservative Party - instead of there being calls for the substantive issues to be investigated, the affair has degenerated into an unseemly squabble over who precisely was responsible for the deployment of "Snatch" Land Rovers that June, with the bickering devolving over whether it was a field officer or the result of equipment inadequacies.

Thus we are told, newly-appointed defence equipment minister, Quentin Davies, has "angrily rejected" claims that his department was responsible for the lack of equipment, suggesting that the deaths could have been the result of commanders on the ground sending out their troops in the wrong vehicles with the wrong equipment. He declares:

Obviously there may be occasions when in retrospect a commander chose the wrong piece of equipment, the wrong vehicle, for the particular threat that the patrol or whatever it was encountered and we had some casualties as a result.
Needless to say, the tail-end Charlies like Cdr John Muxworthy, of the UK National Defence Association (UKNDA), are piling in to attack Davies, Muxworthy declaring that, "The replacement to Snatch vehicles should have been procured years ago but they were not and as a result British lives were lost."

This, I actually find offensive. When the UKNDA was set up, I communicated with Muxworthy about the toll of deaths arising from Land Rovers, inviting him on behalf of his association to take an active part in the campaign to secure their replacement. The Association, however – as a matter of policy – decided to avoid dealing with such contentious "political" matters, choosing instead to focus on non-partisan "welfare" issues such as the treatment of injured soldiers (a "line" that was also followed by the Conservatives).

My cry that we should give at least some attention to preventing soldiers getting injured (and killed) in the first place went unheeded. But now we see Muxworthy and his pals crawling out of the woodwork, ready with their sound bites and their easy condemnation, in exchange for cheap publicity in whatever media source that will give them a hearing.

Even then Muxworthy, in proclaiming that the "Snatch" replacement "should have been procured years ago" is missing the point. It should never have been deployed in the first place, not in Iraq where it arrived in October 2003 and certainly not in Afghanistan where it was deployed in combat operations in mid-2006. General Jackson has a lot to answer for.

The real point is made (partly) by Nicholas Carter of Blaina, Gwent, in the letter column of today's Daily Telegraph, who observes that:

When I was a soldier serving in Oman in the 1950s, most of our casualties were caused by Land Rovers being blown up by mines. That was 50 years ago and still the Government neither learns nor cares.
By 1966, however, the Army was buying factory-modified Bedford trucks, specially fitted with mine protection plates (right), which we specifically discussed in a post in December 2006 (and again in March 2008) with the broader theme of mine protection broached in June 2006 (and here). Even water tankers and fire engines (the latter pictured below in Cyprus, where the mine threat was considerable) were protected.

Where Nicholas Carter goes slightly wrong, therefore, is in complaining that it is "the Government" that "neither learns nor cares". The fact is that the Army and successive governments – Conservative and Labour - took their eyes off the ball. But, in particular, the Army is at fault, having never taken the mine threat in warfare seriously, leaving huge gaps in capacity.


Thus, despite the experience of the Second World War – where mines were the cause of significant vehicle losses in Northern Europe – the reaction in Oman and then Aden was tardy.

Furthermore, each time lessons have been learned, they have been forgotten as quickly. Even more recently, after Bosnia – where British mine protection procedures and equipment were so much admired that they were copied by US forces and the Canadians – the Army disposed of its equipment, dispensed with its hard-earned expertise and went into Iraq almost completely shorn of protection.

Gradually, over the bodies of its dead, it is re-learning the same lessons. Thus, more than forty years after it first bought armoured, mine protected trucks, the Army is again buying armoured, mine protected trucks (pictured) - having, incidentally, recently invested in a massive new fleet of unarmoured trucks.

The tragedy of all this is that, while the storm of protest is centred around the now "fashionable" cause of the "Snatch" Land Rover, there are other equally deadly vehicles still in service, supported by Mr Gerald Howarth.

Thus, we have one vehicle that has become a "political football", to be used by the opposition for scoring cheap points against the government, while the real lessons are not learned and the broader issues are ignored. That is the scourge of modern politics, and what an ugly picture it paints.

I am cross-posting this on Defence of the Realm.

COMMENT THREAD

A small piece of history


As it wafted past on the TV news yesterday, in between the item on the Congo – and the ever-deteriorating situation there – and God knows what else, it was easy just to observe passively the report of the parade in Belfast of the Royal Irish Regiment (RIR) and supporting elements, commemorating their return home from Afghanistan.

But this was more than just any old parade. It was the first time British troops had marched ceremoniously in Belfast, the capital of the troubled British province of Northern Ireland since 1970. As such, it is a small piece of our history and it thus important that it should be recorded as such, and properly so.

Inevitably, the media concentrated on the violence perpetrated by about 1,000 republicans sympathisers who joined a Sinn Féin demonstration, and a much smaller group of republican dissidents who protested in Divis Street, a main entry point to west Belfast.

The fact is, though, that over 50,000 ordinary Belfast people – from both sides of the divide – turned out to welcome the troops, defying the threats and blandishments of the hard-liners, defiantly demonstrating that, as British people, they were welcoming their sons and daughters home from war.

Yet, despite the success, it very nearly did not happen. Intense lobbing behind the scenes from Gerry Adams and his republican faction was directed at the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Shaun Woodward. It was he who, last month, found time to attend a lavish 3-day party in Morocco, with thirty family and friends to celebrate his 50th birthday, but could not find the time to attend the parade.

Adams and his gang at least managed to prevail on Woodward to cancel a planned Army helicopter flypast but the pressure to hold the parade had become too strong for him to resist.

A good part of that was due to the people of Shropshire who, two weeks ago welcomed the RIR as they paraded through the streets of Shrewsbury – close to their home barracks in Tern Hill, where they are based.

Faced with that example, the people of Belfast would have found it intolerable that the people of the mainland could be so enthusiastic about the return of the regiment while they were prevented from expressing their own feelings.

So it was yesterday that they turned out in their thousands, the largest public demonstration for 15 years, supporting troops whose own reputation for reconciliation in the villages and towns of Afghanistan is unparalleled. As Owen Paterson, shadow secretary of state for Northern Ireland, wrote prior to the event yesterday, by way of a tribute - but as much a challenge:

Drawn together from all over Ireland, these young soldiers are an example to all. They can work well together, freely and harmoniously and deliver the goods. They are not bogged down in recriminations, the petty bickering and in the squabbles of the past. We can all be justly proud of them; I hope that their immensely difficult work will be celebrated by the people of Belfast with the same enthusiasm that they received in Shropshire.
The people of Belfast rose to the challenge, and with enthusiasm. In the face of what is now a mere rump the backwards-looking disaffected, they made a small piece of history. From such small things is larger history made. For that we can be grateful – and proud.

COMMENT THREAD

Sunday, November 02, 2008

An Almighty sense of humour

As Booker suggests in his column today, the Almighty must have a sense of humour. Only He could arrange, so fortuitously, for it to snow last Tuesday while MPs spent yet another six hours discussing what is potentially the most expensive single piece of legislation ever put through Parliament … on global warming.

There is no point in going through the debate – the die is cast. Nor is there much point going through the comments on the online edition of the Booker column. There are some good, some bad. All of them are wearily familiar. We have long got past the stage where there is any dialogue (if there ever was). The protagonists have taken their positions and are talking past each other, while the MPs have already made their decision, locked as they are in their tiny self-referential bubble.

But this was also the week, Booker notes, that one of the few specific policy commitments made by would-be president Obama is that he will support last year's ruling by the Supreme Court that the US Environmental Protection Agency should treat CO2 as a "pollutant" under the Clean Air Act.

He writes that the gas that no plant can survive without, and hence all higher forms of life depend on, would be regulated as if it were as dangerous as arsenic or sulphuric acid. Obama also supports a US version of the EU's "carbon trading" scheme, costed at hundreds of billions of dollars. It seems the global warming scare may soon become as crippling to the world's richest economy as anything our own politicians are hell-bent on imposing here.

And this is the man that would be president.

However, this was also the same week - as reported on the admirable Watts Up With That - that nearly 180 places in the US, from Alaska to Alabama, have just recorded their coldest October temperatures or heaviest October snowfalls on record, based on figures from the National Climate Data Center.

It was also the week that we saw Arctic ice continue to rebound and, as significantly, the worst snowstorm in living memory … in Tibet.

Lhunze, the worst-hit region, we are told, had 36 consecutive hours of snowfall from 26 October, causing an average snow cover of five feet. It was reported to be over ten feet thick in some places. "It was the heaviest snow I've ever seen and the snowstorm was totally unexpected," said the Tibetan woman."

Among the 2,158 known stranded, 1,892 had been rescued and evacuated to safe areas, with soldiers, government staff and other rescuers still struggling to evacuate the remaining trapped people. Local meteorologists said the snowstorm was rare in history for the region.

The bad weather in the region is a re-run of last March, at the tail end of winter. This time we have seen it earlier and harder, boding ill for the rest of the season.

Writes Booker, "Declining global temperatures continue to make a mockery of those computer model projections on which the whole global warming scare is based," – his conclusion: "As I have asked before, has there ever in history been such a collective flight from reality?"

If Tibet is a foretaste of reality, the serried ranks of MPs in their centrally-heated debating chamber - prattling on about global warming while it snowed outside - may prove to be one of those historical moments ranking alongside the supposed cry of Marie Antoinette, calling for the starving peasants to eat cake.

They too will need a sense of humour as the tumbrels come to collect them.

COMMENT THREAD

Supine, staid and wooden

Last week's piece by Andrew Roberts on the lack of oratory in Parliament – about which we commented, has brought a response from Sir Nicholas Winterton MP. He writes:

… The House of Commons is certainly less relevant and exciting, more supine, staid and wooden than in the past.

There are indeed few Parliamentary orators. However, the House of Commons has permitted this erosion of its authority, being more interested in family-friendly hours than in its important and unique role of effectively holding the Government to account and properly scrutinising legislation and policy. That almost 70 percent of our legislation comes from the EU also reduced the authority and relevance of Parliament.

Political parties have, in addition, contributed to the emasculation of the House through the candidate selection process in seeking only safe, amenable and malleable candidates who will do the Party's bidding on all occasions and frequently without question, whatever their own views might be.

They must all be "on message". Individuals with a mind of their own, strong views, a real experience of life and with independent leaning are not welcome. Party officials and whips describe them as the "awkward squad", but thank goodness there are still a few who have slipped through the net and who enliven the House from time to time.

It is not surprising that turnout at elections is falling, but only the electorate can reverse this decline in the role of Parliament.
That, unfortunately, is the sad truth of it. As long as we put up with these idiots, they will continue to sell us out.

COMMENT THREAD

March in Belfast

There is some decency left. It passed off peacefully thank goodness.

COMMENT THREAD

Sharing in the proceeds of growth

According to The Sunday Telegraph, the Tories are "to clip BBC wings".

"Conservative policymakers" are thus said to have devised a plan to give back to viewers half of the £800 million raised through licence fee increases to cover the switch to digital television. The move would reduce the licence fee by £6 a year for every viewer.

A senior party source is cited saying that the Tories planned to "rein in the overweening ambitions of the BBC" which, in spending huge sums on star presenters, had been "acting as if it were Manchester United buying Ronaldo".

This item was first drawn to my attention by an e-mail, with the comment: "The great reformers hey? Try £56 a year for every viewer."

The writer then added a further comment: "And this sums up everything that's wrong with the Tories. They are still fiddling round the edges and have no intention of drastically reducing the size of the state. They have no big ideas."

I would, of course, have to disagree. From the current £139.50 a year tax, the "rebate" it seems, is to be clawed back from the increase granted to the BBC – in other words, sharing out money from the BBC's planned growth.

Wasn't "sharing in the proceeds of growth" one of the Tories' big ideas?

COMMENT THREAD

Saturday, November 01, 2008

A man without honour

Members of Parliament owe a very special duty to the Armed Forces. Constitutionally and practically, they are the only people in the country who can directly hold the government to account for its actions in putting them in harm's way.

But there is much more to it than that. Unlike any others, the men and women who are placed in this position do so under orders, which they are obliged to obey, even if that might put their lives at risk. They are not entitled to refuse those orders and, furthermore, they are not allowed to complain.

Under certain circumstances, the very act of complaining publicly might be a criminal offence – a breach either of the disciplinary code or of the Official Secrets Act. Short of resigning – and not always even then – members of the Armed Forces do not have freedom of speech.

Continued on Defence of the Realm.

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What a difference a rule makes!

Associated Press, retailed via IHT, informs us that Deutsche Bank AG reported a surprise third-quarter profit on Thursday, "helped by new European Union accounting rules that limited its write-downs of shaky assets hit by the subprime crisis to €1.2 billion."

Investors, we are told, "were cheered by the better-than-expected performance into the headwinds of the global banking and credit crisis," even though net profit was down 74 percent from last year's third quarter. The boost came with the bank earning €414 million in the July-September period, down from €1.6 billion a year earlier but at least the figure was in the black.

The real story behind this was that it had written down €1.2 billion in the quarter on mortgage-backed securities, leveraged loans and commercial real state, among other assets but had been saved from writing down another €845 million by the change in the EU-approved accounting. This had allowed companies "to reclassify assets rather than mark them at what some say are beaten-down market prices."

Said Isabel Schauerte, an analyst with Celent: "A reclassification of assets has prevented otherwise sizable write-downs from eating into Deutsche's bottom line this quarter," adding, "With new accounting rules in place, reported earnings certainly have a more 'subjective' character."

And how did this come about?

Well, in early October we were reporting the dire effect of the "mark to market" rules and noting that they were implemented by EU law. But we also suggested that, to amend them, the EU would have to go through the tortuous process of amending a directive, which could have taken six months or more.

However, we then picked up the Ecofin decision a few days later but where, it transpired, the Gordian knot could be cut was in prevailing on the International Accounting Standards Board to change its own rules.

This was picked up on 15 October by Greg Hands MP,who was warning anyone who would listen against the change. Fortunately, he was completely ignored, not least by the EU commission. With the IASB amendment in its hot little hands, it was able to take a short-cut, amending its own Commission Regulation. Thus, on that very day we saw:

COMMISSION REGULATION (EC) No 1004/2008 of 15 October 2008 amending Regulation (EC) No 1725/2003 adopting certain international accounting standards in accordance with Regulation (EC) No 1606/2002 of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards International Accounting Standard (IAS) 39 and International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 7
With that, we see the Deutsche Bank AG result, confirming beyond doubt the malign effect of "mark to market" and the effect of what we thought at the time was a "minor and cosmetic" change to the rules. But on that rested an €845 million write-down and made the difference between profit and loss – comfort and crisis.

When the full tale comes to be told of this financial crisis, we may finally see the malign role of the EU-based mark to market rules – the story that, this side of the pond, almost everyone missed.

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